LEADER 05011nam 2200625 a 450 001 9910141009403321 005 20240617065558.0 010 $a0-8330-5199-7 035 $a(CKB)2670000000081185 035 $a(EBL)683233 035 $a(OCoLC)703262966 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000471695 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)12124135 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000471695 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10428194 035 $a(PQKB)11507820 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL683233 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10456445 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC683233 035 $a(oapen)doab114926 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000081185 100 $a20110201d2011 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe next supreme leader $esuccession in the Islamic Republic of Iran /$fAlireza Nader, David E. Thaler, S. R. Bohandy 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aSanta Monica, Calif. $cRand/National Defense Research Institute$d2011 215 $a1 online resource (158 p.) 300 $a"Prepared for the office of the Secretary of Defense." 311 08$a0-8330-5133-4 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; Chapter One - Introduction; The Official Procedure for Selecting Iran's Supreme Leader Is Laid Out in the Iranian Constitution; In Actuality, the Next Succession Is Likely to Occur in a Much Different Way; The Factional Balance of Power; The Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih; Khamenei's Personal Network; Other Potential Factors Are Not as Relevant if the Succession Happens in the Near Term 327 $aThe Trajectory of the Next Succession Will Hinge on How the Three Principal Factors Are Configured at the Time of Khamenei's Departure Methodology; Roadmap of the Report; Chapter Two - Factor 1: The Factional Balance of Power; The Factional Landscape in Iran; The Islamist Right; The Islamist Left (Reformists); Since the Islamic Revolution, Factionalism Has Been More Influential Than Constitutional Process in Decision making and Policy making Within the Iranian Political System; Khomeini Was Able to Keep Factional Jockeying Largely in Check 327 $aSince Khamenei Came to Power in 1989, Factional Competition Has Grown Markedly in Both Intensity and Influence Chapter Three - Factor 2: The Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih; The Absolute View of Velayat-e Faghih; The Democratic View of Velayat-e Faghih; The Quietist View of Velayat-e Faghih; Since Each Faction Has a Different View of Velayat-e Faghih, Whichever Dominates Iran's Political Landscape Will Play a Decisive Role in Shaping Succession; Chapter Four - Factor 3: Khamenei's Personal Network; The Members of Khamenei's Personal Network 327 $aThe Supreme Leader Has Historically Maintained a Personal Network Instrumental in Making Key Political Decisions Khomeini's Personal Network Was the Main Driver of the 1989 Succession; Since the Mid-1990s, Khamenei and His Personal Network Have Steadily Consolidated Authority and Are Now the Principal Decision makers in Iranian Politics; Chapter Five - Five Scenarios for Succession of the Supreme Leader in the Near Term; Indicators That Suggest How Factional Competition Is Evolving; Indicators That Point to the Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih 327 $aIndicators That Signal How Khamenei's Personal Network Is Developing and the Power It Holds The Configuration of the Three Factors as of 2011; Five Possible Scenarios for Succession of the Current Supreme Leader; Status Quo: The Supreme Leader Remains Powerful But Not Omnipotent; Absolutist: The Supreme Leader, a Dictator, Discards Elected Institutions; Democratic: An Iranian-Stylized Islamic Democracy; Leadership Council: An Executive Body Beholden to Qom; Abolition: Demise of the Islamic Republic; The "Wild Card" Factor: The Nature and Timing of Khamenei's Exit 327 $aThe Status Quo and Absolutist Scenarios Seem the Most Likely for the Next Succession 330 $aAs the commander in chief and highest political authority in Iran, the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has played a critical role in the direction of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This monograph identifies three key factors that will shape succession of the next Supreme Leader and outlines five alternative scenarios for the post-Khamenei era. It situates all of this within the context of the June 2009 election. 606 $aHeads of state$xSuccession$zIran 607 $aIran$xPolitics and government$y1997- 615 0$aHeads of state$xSuccession 676 $a320.955 700 $aNader$b Alireza$0910137 701 $aThaler$b David E$0913855 701 $aBohandy$b S. R$0935273 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910141009403321 996 $aThe next supreme leader$92106446 997 $aUNINA