LEADER 07007nam 2200685 450 001 9910136949203321 005 20231220192136.0 010 $a1-118-93747-3 035 $a(CKB)3710000000666775 035 $a(EBL)4526664 035 $a(OCoLC)949759453 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001674259 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)16473513 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001674259 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)15010421 035 $a(PQKB)10051934 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4526664 035 $a(CaSebORM)9781118922286 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000666775 100 $a20160606h20162016 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 00$aGlobal dynamics $eapproaches from complexity science /$fedited by Alan Wilson 205 $aFirst edition 210 1$aChichester, West Sussex, England :$cWiley,$d2016. 210 4$dİ2016 215 $a1 online resource (407 pages) 225 1 $aWiley Series in Computational and Quantitative Social Science. 225 0 $aTHEi Wiley ebooks. 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-118-93746-5 311 $a1-118-92228-X 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters and index. 327 $aTitle Page; Copyright; Table of Contents; Notes on Contributors; Acknowledgements; Part One: Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science; Chapter 1: Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science; Reference; Part Two: Trade and Economic Development; Chapter 2: The Global Trade System and Its Evolution; 2.1 The Evolution of the Shipping and Ports' System; 2.2 Analyses of the Cargo Ship Network; 2.3 A Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) Perspective; 2.4 Conclusions: The Benefits of a Systems Perspective; References; Appendix 327 $aA.1 Complexity Science and Complex Adaptive Systems: Key CharacteristicsChapter 3: An Interdependent Multi-layer Model for Trade; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 The Interdependent Multi-layer Model: Vertical Integration; 3.3 Model Layers; 3.4 The Workings of the Model; 3.5 Model Calibration; 3.6 Result 1: Steady State; 3.7 Result 2: Estimation and Propagation of Shocks in the IMM; 3.8 Discussion and Conclusions; References; Chapter 4: A Global Inter-country Economic Model Based on Linked Input-Output Models; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Existing Global Economic Models; 4.3 Description of the Model 327 $a4.4 Solving the Model4.5 Analysis; 4.6 Conclusions; Acknowledgements; References; Appendix; A.1 Modelling the 'Rest of the World'; A.2 Services Trade Data; Part Three: Migration; Chapter 5: Global Migration Modelling: A Review of Key Policy Needs and Research Centres; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Policy and Migration Research; 5.3 Conclusion; References; Appendix; A.1 United Kingdom; A.2 Rest of Europe; A.3 Rest of the World; Chapter 6: Estimating Inter-regional Migration in Europe; 6.1 Introduction; 6.2 The Spatial System and the Modelling Challenge; 6.3 Biproportional Fitting Modelling Methodology 327 $a6.4 Model Parameter Calibration6.5 Model Experiments; 6.6 Results; 6.7 Conclusions and Comments on the New Framework for Estimating Inter-regional, Inter-country Migration Flows in Europe; References; Chapter 7: Estimating an Annual Time Series of Global Migration Flows - An Alternative Methodology for Using Migrant Stock Data; 7.1 Introduction; 7.2 Methodology; 7.3 Results and Validation; 7.4 Discussion; 7.5 Conclusions; References; Part Four: Security; Chapter 8: Conflict Modelling: Spatial Interaction as Threat; 8.1 Introduction; 8.2 Conflict Intensity: Space-Time Patterning of Events 327 $a8.3 Understanding Conflict Onset: Simulation-based Models8.4 Forecasting Global Conflict Hotspots; 8.5 A Spatial Model of Threat; 8.6 Discussion: The Use of a Spatial Threat Measure in Models of Conflict; References; Chapter 9: Riots; 9.1 Introduction; 9.2 The 2011 Riots in London; 9.3 Data-Driven Modelling of Riot Diffusion; 9.4 Statistical Modelling of Target Choice; 9.5 A Generative Model of the Riots; 9.6 Discussion; References; Chapter 10: Rebellions; 10.1 Introduction; 10.2 Data; 10.3 Hawkes model; 10.4 Results; 10.5 Discussion; References 327 $aChapter 11: Spatial Interaction as Threat: Modelling Maritime Piracy 330 $aA world model: economies, trade, migration, security and development aid. This bookprovides the analytical capability to understand and explore the dynamics of globalisation. It is anchored in economic input-output models of over 200 countries and their relationships through trade, migration, security and development aid. The tools of complexity science are brought to bear and mathematical and computer models are developed both for the elements and for an integrated whole. Models are developed at a variety of scales ranging from the global and international trade through a European model of inter-sub-regional migration to piracy in the Gulf and the London riots of 2011. The models embrace the changing technology of international shipping, the impacts of migration on economic development along with changing patterns of military expenditure and development aid. A unique contribution is the level of spatial disaggregation which presents each of 200+ countries and their mutual interdependencies ? along with some finer scale analyses of cities and regions.  This is the first global model which offers this depth of detail with fully work-out models, these provide tools for policy making at national, European and global scales. Global dynamics: Presents in depth models of global dynamics. Provides a world economic model of 200+ countries and their interactions through trade, migration, security and development aid. Provides pointers to the deployment of analytical capability through modelling in policy development. Features a variety of models that constitute a formidable toolkit for analysis and policy development. Offers a demonstration of the practicalities of complexity science concepts. This book is for practitioners and policy analysts as well as those interested in mathematical model building and complexity science as well as advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level students. 410 0$aWiley series in computational and quantitative social science. 606 $aGeography$xMathematical models 606 $aInternational trade$xMathematical models 606 $aEmigration and immigration$xMathematical models 615 0$aGeography$xMathematical models. 615 0$aInternational trade$xMathematical models. 615 0$aEmigration and immigration$xMathematical models. 676 $a910/.01511352 700 $aWilson$b Alan$0756625 702 $aWilson$b A. G$g(Alan Geoffrey),$f1939- 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910136949203321 996 $aGlobal dynamics$92054504 997 $aUNINA