LEADER 05216oam 22012374 450 001 9910136708703321 005 20230808200025.0 010 $a1-4755-4306-9 035 $a(CKB)3710000000907180 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4723283 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2016195 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000907180 100 $a20020129d2016 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $2rdacontent 182 $2rdamedia 183 $2rdacarrier 200 10$aU.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates /$fCarlos Caceres, Yan Carriere-Swallow, Ishak Demir, Bertrand Gruss 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2016. 215 $a1 online resource (47 pages) $cillustrations, tables 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 311 $a1-4755-4305-0 311 $a1-4755-4324-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 330 3 $aAs the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on average. We show that, to a large extent, this comovement reflects synchronized business cycles. However, there is important heterogeneity across countries, and we find evidence of limited monetary autonomy in some cases. The co-movement of longer term interest rates is larger and more pervasive. We distinguish between U.S. interest rate movements that surprise markets versus those that are anticipated, and find that most countries receive greater spillovers from the former. We also distinguish between movements in the U.S. term premium and the expected path of risk-free rates, concluding that countries respond differently to these shocks. Finally, we explore the determinants of monetary autonomy and find strong evidence for the role of exchange rate flexibility, capital account openness, but also for other factors, such as dollarization of financial system liabilities, and the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2016/195 606 $aMonetary policy$zUnited States 606 $aInterest rates$zUnited States 606 $aBusiness cycles$zUnited States 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aEstimation$2imf 606 $aSimulation Methods$2imf 606 $aBusiness Fluctuations$2imf 606 $aCycles$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aMoney and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy$2imf 606 $aCentral Banks and Their Policies$2imf 606 $aInternational Business Cycles$2imf 606 $aBanks$2imf 606 $aDepository Institutions$2imf 606 $aMicro Finance Institutions$2imf 606 $aMortgages$2imf 606 $aExternalities$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aBanking$2imf 606 $aLong term interest rates$2imf 606 $aYield curve$2imf 606 $aShort term interest rates$2imf 606 $aExchange rate flexibility$2imf 606 $aFinancial services$2imf 606 $aSpillovers$2imf 606 $aFinancial sector policy and analysis$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 606 $aBanks and banking$2imf 606 $aInternational finance$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aMonetary policy 615 0$aInterest rates 615 0$aBusiness cycles 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aEstimation 615 7$aSimulation Methods 615 7$aBusiness Fluctuations 615 7$aCycles 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aMoney and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation 615 7$aMonetary Policy 615 7$aCentral Banks and Their Policies 615 7$aInternational Business Cycles 615 7$aBanks 615 7$aDepository Institutions 615 7$aMicro Finance Institutions 615 7$aMortgages 615 7$aExternalities 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aBanking 615 7$aLong term interest rates 615 7$aYield curve 615 7$aShort term interest rates 615 7$aExchange rate flexibility 615 7$aFinancial services 615 7$aSpillovers 615 7$aFinancial sector policy and analysis 615 7$aInterest rates 615 7$aBanks and banking 615 7$aInternational finance 676 $a332.4973 700 $aCaceres$b Carlos$0882223 701 $aCarriere-Swallow$b Yan$01450031 701 $aDemir$b Ishak$01451145 701 $aGruss$b Bertrand$01151118 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910136708703321 996 $aU.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates$93651075 997 $aUNINA