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Introduction -- II. Theoretical Considerations -- III. Data Analysis -- IV. Estimation -- A. Non-oil Current Account Balance -- B. Non-oil Fiscal Balance -- C. Public and Private Sectors -- V. Conclusion -- Tables -- 1. Determinants of Non- oil Current Account -- 2. Determinants of the Non-oil Fiscal Balance -- 3. Determinants of Non-oil Current Account -- Figures -- 1. Regional Non-Oil Current Accounts -- 2. Regional Non-Oil Fiscal Deficits -- References. 330 3 $aThis paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil balance coefficients sum to unity is accepted for all specifications that adjust the return on wealth for future population changes. For oil-exporting countries outside Africa, around half of the fluctuations in the private sector non-oil balance are driven by considerations of changes in permanent income (the return on oil wealth) rather than current income. By contrast, for the public sector and African countries permanent income has little or no effect. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/248 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$xEconometric models 606 $aBalance of payments$xEconometric models 606 $aConsumption (Economics)$xMathematical models 606 $aRevenue$xEconometric models 606 $aAggregate Factor Income Distribution$2imf 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 606 $aConsumption$2imf 606 $aCurrent Account Adjustment$2imf 606 $aCurrent account$2imf 606 $aEconomics$2imf 606 $aEnergy: General$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policy$2imf 606 $aFiscal policy$2imf 606 $aFiscal stance$2imf 606 $aIncome$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption$2imf 606 $aOil$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 606 $aSaving$2imf 606 $aShort-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aWealth$2imf 607 $aQatar$2imf 615 0$aPetroleum industry and trade$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBalance of payments$xEconometric models. 615 0$aConsumption (Economics)$xMathematical models. 615 0$aRevenue$xEconometric models. 615 7$aAggregate Factor Income Distribution 615 7$aBalance of payments 615 7$aConsumption 615 7$aCurrent Account Adjustment 615 7$aCurrent account 615 7$aEconomics 615 7$aEnergy: General 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aFiscal Policy 615 7$aFiscal policy 615 7$aFiscal stance 615 7$aIncome 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption 615 7$aOil 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 615 7$aSaving 615 7$aShort-term Capital Movements 615 7$aWealth 676 $a336.02 700 $aThomas$b Alun$01098448 701 $aBayoumi$b Tamim$0122763 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bStrategy, Policy, and Review Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910957531503321 996 $aToday versus Tomorrow - The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income$94372904 997 $aUNINA