01031nam a2200241 i 4500991000909829707536101025s2007 it a b 000 0dita db13930710-39ule_instDip.to Beni Arti e StoriaitaMontanari, Tomaso,1971-267471Velázquez e il ritratto :Frans Hals, Gian Lorenzo Bernini, Anton Van Dyck, Rembrandt, Jan Vermeer, Fra' Galgario /Tomaso MontanariFirenze :E-ducation.it ;Milano :Il Sole 24 ore,cop. 2007.311 p. :in gran parte ill. ;32 cm.I grandi maestri dell'arte ;11In custodia.Bibliografia : p. 311.Velázquez, Diego,1599-1660.b1393071002-04-1425-10-10991000909829707536LE019 A16 AR M 1112019000063401le019pE16.90-l- 00000.i1518819x25-10-10Velázquez e il ritratto249259UNISALENTOle01925-10-10ma -itait 0006038oam 22013814 450 991097399110332120250426110137.0978661284420197814623759431462375944978128284420912828442029781452728872145272887997814518736101451873611(CKB)3170000000055361(SSID)ssj0000940095(PQKBManifestationID)11528466(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940095(PQKBWorkID)10949251(PQKB)10175152(OCoLC)694140988(IMF)WPIEE2009214(MiAaPQ)EBC1608844(IMF)WPIEA2009214WPIEA2009214(EXLCZ)99317000000005536120020129d2009 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrConstructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis /Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.23 p. illIMF Working Papers"September 2009."9781451917833 145191783X Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Model Structure -- 2.1 Overview -- 2.2 Model components -- 2.2.1 Variable definitions -- 2.2.2 Underlying equilibrium values and stochastic processes -- 2.2.3 Bank lending tightening -- 2.2.4 Output gap -- 2.2.5 Unemployment -- 2.2.6 Inflation -- 2.2.7 Policy rule for the interest rate -- 2.2.8 Exchange rate -- 2.2.9 Variance and coviariance of disturbances -- III. GPM-Generated Confidence Bands -- 3.1 Construction -- 3.2 U.S. inflation -- 3.3 U.S. interest rate -- 3.4 U.S. output gap -- 3.5 Bank lending tightening -- IV. Conclusions -- References -- Figures -- 1. U.S. Year-on Year CPI Inflation -- 2. U.S. Interest Rate -- 3. U.S. Output Gap -- 4. Bank Lending Tightening -- 5. Oil Price.We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/214Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009Financial crisesUnited StatesEconometric modelsFinancial crisesEuropean Union countriesEconometric modelsFinancial crisesJapanEconometric modelsPetroleum productsPricesUnited StatesEconometric modelsPetroleum productsPricesEuropean Union countriesEconometric modelsPetroleum productsPricesJapanEconometric modelsInterest ratesUnited StatesEconometric modelsInterest ratesEuropean Union countriesEconometric modelsInterest ratesJapanEconometric modelsBank loansUnited StatesEconometric modelsBank loansEuropean Union countriesEconometric modelsBank loansJapanEconometric modelsCurrencyimfDeflationimfEconomic theoryimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign exchangeimfInflationimfMacroeconomicsimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfOil pricesimfOutput gapimfPotential outputimfPrice LevelimfPricesimfProduction and Operations ManagementimfProductionimfReal exchange ratesimfUnited StatesimfGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.Financial crisesEconometric models.Financial crisesEconometric models.Financial crisesEconometric models.Petroleum productsPricesEconometric models.Petroleum productsPricesEconometric models.Petroleum productsPricesEconometric models.Interest ratesEconometric models.Interest ratesEconometric models.Interest ratesEconometric models.Bank loansEconometric models.Bank loansEconometric models.Bank loansEconometric models.CurrencyDeflationEconomic theoryEnergy: Demand and SupplyForeign ExchangeForeign exchangeInflationMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics: ProductionOil pricesOutput gapPotential outputPrice LevelPricesProduction and Operations ManagementProductionReal exchange rates330.9;330.90511Clinton Kevin185170Chen Huigang1815876Johnson Marianne1816509Kamenik Ondrej1815841Laxton Douglas1594457International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910973991103321Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis4372637UNINA