05314nam 2200613 a 450 99621817890331620230617011826.01-280-27392-597866102739280-470-32240-30-470-87123-70-470-87124-5(CKB)111087027141074(EBL)219700(OCoLC)53914732(SSID)ssj0000157581(PQKBManifestationID)11182710(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000157581(PQKBWorkID)10139172(PQKB)10915024(MiAaPQ)EBC219700(EXLCZ)9911108702714107420040331d2003 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrFoundations of risk analysis[electronic resource] a knowledge and decision-oriented perspective /Terje AvenChichester ;Hoboken, NJ John Wiley & Sonsc20031 online resource (208 p.)Wiley Series in Probability and StatisticsDescription based upon print version of record.0-471-49548-4 Includes bibliographical references (p. [179]-185) and index.Foundations of Risk Analysis; Contents; Preface; 1 Introduction; 1.1 The Importance of Risk and Uncertainty Assessments; 1.2 The Need to Develop a Proper Risk Analysis Framework; Bibliographic Notes; 2 Common Thinking about Risk and Risk Analysis; 2.1 Accident Risk; 2.1.1 Accident Statistics; 2.1.2 Risk Analysis; 2.1.3 Reliability Analysis; 2.2 Economic Risk; 2.2.1 General Definitions of Economic Risk in Business and Project Management; 2.2.2 A Cost Risk Analysis; 2.2.3 Finance and Portfolio Theory; 2.2.4 Treatment of Risk in Project Discounted Cash Flow Analysis2.3 Discussion and Conclusions2.3.1 The Classical Approach; 2.3.2 The Bayesian Paradigm; 2.3.3 Economic Risk and Rational Decision-Making; 2.3.4 Other Perspectives and Applications; 2.3.5 Conclusions; Bibliographic Notes; 3 How to Think about Risk and Risk Analysis; 3.1 Basic Ideas and Principles; 3.1.1 Background Information; 3.1.2 Models and Simplifications in Probability Considerations; 3.1.3 Observable Quantities; 3.2 Economic Risk; 3.2.1 A Simple Cost Risk Example; 3.2.2 Production Risk; 3.2.3 Business and Project Management; 3.2.4 Investing Money in a Stock Market3.2.5 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis3.3 Accident Risk; Bibliographic Notes; 4 How to Assess Uncertainties and Specify Probabilities; 4.1 What Is a Good Probability Assignment?; 4.1.1 Criteria for Evaluating Probabilities; 4.1.2 Heuristics and Biases; 4.1.3 Evaluation of the Assessors; 4.1.4 Standardization and Consensus; 4.2 Modelling; 4.2.1 Examples of Models; 4.2.2 Discussion; 4.3 Assessing Uncertainty of Y; 4.3.1 Assignments Based on Classical Statistical Methods; 4.3.2 Analyst Judgements Using All Sources of Information; 4.3.3 Formal Expert Elicitation; 4.3.4 Bayesian Analysis4.4 Uncertainty Assessments of a Vector X4.4.1 Cost Risk; 4.4.2 Production Risk; 4.4.3 Reliability Analysis; 4.5 Discussion and Conclusions; Bibliographic Notes; 5 How to Use Risk Analysis to Support Decision-Making; 5.1 What Is a Good Decision?; 5.1.1 Features of a Decision-Making Model; 5.1.2 Decision-Support Tools; 5.1.3 Discussion; 5.2 Some Examples; 5.2.1 Accident Risk; 5.2.2 Scrap in Place or Complete Removal of Plant; 5.2.3 Production System; 5.2.4 Reliability Target; 5.2.5 Health Risk; 5.2.6 Warranties; 5.2.7 Offshore Development Project; 5.2.8 Risk Assessment: National Sector5.2.9 Multi-Attribute Utility Example5.3 Risk Problem Classification Schemes; 5.3.1 A Scheme Based on Potential Consequences and Uncertainties; 5.3.2 A Scheme Based on Closeness to Hazard and Level of Authority; Bibliographic Notes; 6 Summary and Conclusions; Appendix A Basic Theory of Probability and Statistics; A.1 Probability Theory; A.1.1 Types of Probabilities; A.1.2 Probability Rules; A.1.3 Random Quantities (Random Variables); A.1.4 Some Common Discrete Probability Distributions (Models); A.1.5 Some Common Continuous Distributions (Models)A.1.6 Some Remarks on Probability Models and Their ParametersEveryday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis - expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support dWiley Series in Probability and StatisticsRisk assessmentStatistical methodsRisk assessmentStatistical methods.519.5Aven T(Terje)878124MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK996218178903316Foundations of risk analysis1977960UNISA