05481oam 22014414 450 991097515150332120250426110808.0978661383002997814623306451462330649978145270172114527017259781283517577128351757497814519083741451908377(CKB)3360000000443928(EBL)3014395(SSID)ssj0000940842(PQKBManifestationID)11545386(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940842(PQKBWorkID)10955968(PQKB)10296634(OCoLC)698585661(IMF)WPIEE2006041(MiAaPQ)EBC3014395(IMF)WPIEA2006041WPIEA2006041(EXLCZ)99336000000044392820020129d2006 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrForecasting ECB Monetary Policy : Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography /Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, Helge Berger1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2006.1 online resource (42 p.)IMF Working Papers"February 2006".9781451863017 1451863012 Includes bibliographical references.""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. DATA AND SOME STYLIZED FACTS""; ""III. THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHY, MACRO CONDITIONS, AND HISTORY""; ""IV. DECOMPOSITION OF THE FORECASTING ERRORS""; ""V. CONCLUSIONS""; ""References""Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2006/041Monetary policyEuropean Union countriesBankingimfBanks and BankingimfBanks and bankingimfBanksimfCentral bank autonomyimfCentral bank policy rateimfCentral Banks and Their PoliciesimfCentral banksimfDeflationimfDepository InstitutionsimfEvent StudiesimfFinancial servicesimfIncome economicsimfIndustrial productionimfIndustriesimfIndustries: GeneralimfInflationimfInformation and Market EfficiencyimfInterest ratesimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfLaborimfLabourimfMacroeconomicsimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfMicro Finance InstitutionsimfMonetary PolicyimfMortgagesimfPrice LevelimfPricesimfProductionimfUnemploymentimfUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job SearchimfEuropean Union countriesEconomic policyUnited KingdomimfMonetary policyBankingBanks and BankingBanks and bankingBanksCentral bank autonomyCentral bank policy rateCentral Banks and Their PoliciesCentral banksDeflationDepository InstitutionsEvent StudiesFinancial servicesIncome economicsIndustrial productionIndustriesIndustries: GeneralInflationInformation and Market EfficiencyInterest ratesInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsLaborLabourMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics: ProductionMicro Finance InstitutionsMonetary PolicyMortgagesPrice LevelPricesProductionUnemploymentUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job SearchEhrmann Michael146600Berger Helge1803593Fratzscher Marcel1815660DcWaIMFBOOK9910975151503321Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy4371127UNINA