07597nam 22007574a 450 991096176300332120251116141033.097866101859799780309173407030917340X9781280185977128018597X9780309593199030959319097805850578660585057869(CKB)110986584752670(SSID)ssj0000195779(PQKBManifestationID)11189421(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000195779(PQKBWorkID)10131782(PQKB)11746301(MiAaPQ)EBC3376214(Au-PeEL)EBL3376214(CaPaEBR)ebr10055215(CaONFJC)MIL18597(OCoLC)923262071(Perlego)4736276(BIP)48275055(EXLCZ)9911098658475267019990310d1999 uy 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrMaking climate forecasts matter /Paul C. Stern and William E. Easterling, editors ; Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council1st ed.Washington, D.C. National Academy Pressc1999xii, 175 p. illBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph9780309064750 0309064759 Includes bibliographical references (p. 142-159) and index.Making Climate Forecasts Matter -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- MAKING CLIMATE FORECASTS MATTER -- Summary -- POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION -- DISSEMINATION OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION -- CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATIC VARIATIONS AND OF CLIMATE FORECASTS -- 1 Climate Variability, Climate Forecasting, and Society -- CLIMATE VARIATION AND SOCIETY -- Use of Climate Knowledge to Improve Well-Being -- When Climate Becomes Hazardous -- Climate Sensitivity and Vulnerability -- The Potential Usefulness of Climate Forecasts -- STRUCTURE OF THIS BOOK -- 2 Climate Forecasting and Its Uses -- WEATHER AND CLIMATE -- HOW SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL CLIMATE FORECASTS ARE MADE -- The Weather Forecasting Paradigm -- What Is Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasting? -- Why Is Climate Predictable? -- How Have Climate Forecasts Been Made Previously? -- How Are the Forecasts Made by Numerical Models? -- Which Quantities Are Forecast? -- How Are the Forecasts Evaluated? -- How Good Are the Forecasts? -- Problems and Prospects for Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction -- TOWARD USABLE KNOWLEDGE -- From Tropical Pacific SST to Other Quantities -- Uses of ENSO Nowcasts -- Specific ENSO Forecast Needs-Time and Space Resolution -- Using ENSO Forecasts -- Possible New Directions in Climate Forecasting -- Non-ENSO Bases for Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts -- The Potential to Develop Leading Climate Indicators -- Processes for Identifying Usable Knowledge -- FINDINGS -- 3 Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climatic Variation -- COPING IN WEATHER-SENSITIVE SECTORS -- Agriculture -- Fishery Management -- Forests and Other Ecosystems -- Water Supply and Flood Management -- Human Health -- Other Weather-Sensitive Sectors -- INSTITUTIONS FOR COPING WITH CLIMATE VARIABILITY -- Disaster Insurance and Reinsurance -- Emergency Preparedness and Response.Market Mechanisms -- FINDINGS -- 4 Making Climate Forecast Information More Useful -- USEFUL INFORMATION THAT CLIMATE FORECASTS MIGHT PROVIDE -- RESPONSES TO PAST CLIMATE PREDICTIONS -- Drought Forecasts in the Yakima Valley -- ENSO-based Forecasts in Northeast Brazil, 1991-1992 and 1996 -- The Credibility of Famine Early Warning Systems -- INDIRECT SOURCES OF INSIGHT INTO RESPONSES TO CLIMATE FORECASTS -- Beliefs About Weather and Climate -- Human Information Processing and Climate Information -- Organizational Responses to New Information -- Insights from Analogous Types of Information Transmission -- General Principles for Designing Information Programs -- Alternative Models for Designing Information Programs -- FINDINGS -- 5 Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts -- ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIATIONS -- A Conceptual Model of the Effects of Climate Variability -- Current Scientific Capability -- Estimating Biophysical Impacts That Constrain Human Systems -- Research Based on Observations of Decision Making -- Simulations of Decision Making -- Challenges in Estimating the Impacts of Climate Variability -- ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF CLIMATE FORECASTS -- What Kinds of Benefit Can Climate Forecasts Provide? -- A Conceptual Approach to Estimating the Value of Forecasts -- Current Scientific Capability in Valuing Climate Forecasts -- Research Based on the Use of Actual Climate Forecasts -- Simulations of Climate Forecast Value -- Challenges in Estimating the Value of Forecasts -- FINDINGS -- 6 Scientific Priorities -- FINDINGS -- Climate Forecasting and Its Uses -- Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variation -- The Potential of Climate Forecasts -- Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts -- General -- SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS -- Potential Benefits of Climate Forecast Information.Improved Dissemination of Forecast Information -- Consequences of Climatic Variability and of Forecasts -- The Value of Studying Past Climate Fluctuations and Forecasts -- References -- About the Authors -- Index.El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been used--and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change. Climate forecastsClimatic changesSocial aspectsWeather forecastingSocial aspectsLong-range weather forecastsSocial aspectsClimatic changesSocial aspects.Weather forecastingSocial aspects.Long-range weather forecastsSocial aspects.551.63Stern Paul C.1944-1609213Easterling William E1811507National Research Council (U.S.).Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability.MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910961763003321Making climate forecasts matter4363406UNINA04852nam 2200817 a 450 991097453730332120200520144314.09786612272462978030914178903091417889781282272460128227246297803091300110309130018(CKB)1000000000789193(EBL)3564170(SSID)ssj0000213021(PQKBManifestationID)11206292(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000213021(PQKBWorkID)10139504(PQKB)11683412(MiAaPQ)EBC3564170(Au-PeEL)EBL3564170(CaPaEBR)ebr10318112(CaONFJC)MIL227246(OCoLC)932320418(Perlego)4736148(BIP)26228595(EXLCZ)99100000000078919320091008d2009 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrNutrient control actions for improving water quality in the Mississippi River basin and northern Gulf of Mexico /Committee on the Mississippi River and the Clean Water Act: Scientific Modeling, and Technical Aspects of Nutrient Pollutant Load Allocation and Implementation, Water Science and Technology Board, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies1st ed.Washington, D.C. National Academies Press20091 online resource (89 p.)Description based upon print version of record.9780309130004 030913000X Includes bibliographical references (p. 63-68).""Acknowledgment of Reviewers""; ""Contents""; ""Summary""; ""1 Introduction""; ""2 Nutrient Inputs and Water Quality Effects""; ""3 Getting Started: A Nutrient Control Implementation Initiative (NCII)""; ""4 Allocating Nutrient Load Reduction Targets""; ""5 Monitoring the Effectiveness of Nutrient Control Actions and Strategies""; ""6 Overcoming Perceived Obstacles to Action""; ""References""; ""Appendixes""; ""Appendix A: Statement of Task""; ""Appendix B: Guest Speakers at Committee Meetings""; ""Appendix C: Committee Biographical Information""A large area of coastal waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico experiences seasonal conditions of low levels of dissolved oxygen, a condition known as hypoxia. Excess discharge of nutrients into the Gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers causes nutrient overenrichment in the gulf's coastal waters and stimulates the growth of large algae blooms. When these algae die, the process of decomposition depletes dissolved oxygen from the water column and creates hypoxic conditions. In considering how to implement provisions of the Clean Water Act to strengthen nutrient reduction objectives across the Mississippi River basin, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requested advice from the National Research Council. This book represents the results of the committee's investigations and deliberations, and recommends that the EPA and U.S. Department of Agriculture should jointly establish a Nutrient Control Implementation Initiative to learn more about the effectiveness of actions meant to improve water quality throughout the Mississippi River basin and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Other recommendations include how to move forward on the larger process of allocating nutrient loading caps -- which entails delegating responsibilities for reducing nutrient pollutants such as nitrogen and phosphorus -- across the basin. Nutrient pollution of waterMississippi RiverMarine eutrophicationMexico, Gulf ofHypoxia (Water)Mexico, Gulf ofNonpoint source pollutionUnited StatesFertilizersEnvironmental aspectsUnited StatesWaterPollutionUnited StatesAgricultural pollutionEnvironmental aspectsUnited StatesEutrophicationUnited StatesWatershed managementUnited StatesNutrient pollution of waterMarine eutrophicationHypoxia (Water)Nonpoint source pollutionFertilizersEnvironmental aspectsWaterPollutionAgricultural pollutionEnvironmental aspectsEutrophicationWatershed management363.739MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910974537303321Nutrient control actions for improving water quality in the Mississippi River basin and northern Gulf of Mexico4347487UNINA