06704oam 22013574 450 991097123460332120250426110814.0978148439170914843917059781484302774148430277X97814843253841484325389(CKB)2670000000420296(EBL)1587881(SSID)ssj0001076479(PQKBManifestationID)11696889(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001076479(PQKBWorkID)11028492(PQKB)10711174(Au-PeEL)EBL1587881(CaPaEBR)ebr10739541(CaONFJC)MIL490369(OCoLC)837732387(IMF)WPIEE2013087(IMF)WPIEA2013087(MiAaPQ)EBC1587881WPIEA2013087(EXLCZ)99267000000042029620020129d2013 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrGPM6 : The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions /Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Petar Manchev1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2013.1 online resource (80 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.9781484318942 1484318943 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Background to the Model Specification; III. The specification of the model; A. Data definitions; B. Stochastic processes; 1. Potential Output; 2. NAIRU; 3. Equilibrium real interest rate; 4. Real exchange rate; C. Behavioral equations for the G3 economies; 1. Output Gap; 2. Inflation; 3. Policy Interest Rate; 4. Medium-term Interest Rate; 5. Uncovered Interest Parity; 6. Unemployment Rate; D. Differences in specification of behavioral equations for the emerging economies; 1. Output Gap; 2. Uncovered Interest Parity; 3. Unemployment RateIV. Confronting the Model with the DataA. Bayesian estimation; 1. General approach; 2. Calibration and estimation in the GPM6 model; B. Results; 1. Estimated and calibrated coefficients; 2. Root Mean Squared Errors; 3. Variance decompositions; 4. Impulse response functions; 5. A global demand shock; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix 1: GPM6 Data Definitions; Tables; 1. GPM6 Parameters Table; 2. Results from estimation of parameters in GPM6 (sample 1994Q1-2007Q4); 3. GPM6 Trade and Spillovers Table; 4. GPM6 Trade and Spillovers Table[2]5. Results from estimation - standard deviation of structural shocks[1]6. Results from estimation - standard deviation of structural shocks[2]; 7. Root Mean Squared Errors 1999Q1-2007Q4 .; 8. Variance Decomposition[1]; 9. Variance Decomposition[2]; Figures; 1. Shock to (Omitted); 2. Shock to (Omitted); 3. Shock to (Omitted); 4. Shock to (Omitted); 5. Shock to (Omitted); 6. Shock to (Omitted); 7. Shock to (Omitted); 8. Shock to (Omitted); 9. Shock to (Omitted); 10. Shock to (Omitted); 11. Shock to (Omitted); 12. Shock to (Omitted); 13. Shock to (Omitted); 14. Shock to (Omitted)15. Shock to (Omitted)16. Shock to (Omitted); 17. Shock to (Omitted); 18. Shock to (Omitted); 19. Shock to (Omitted); 20. Shock to (Omitted); 21. Shock to (Omitted); 22. Shock to (Omitted); 23. Global Demand ShockThis is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2013/087Economic policyMathematical modelsEconomicsMathematical modelsBankingimfBanks and BankingimfCentral bank policy rateimfCurrencyimfDeflationimfEconomic theoryimfFinanceimfFinancial servicesimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign exchangeimfInflationimfInterest ratesimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfMacroeconomicsimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfModel Construction and EstimationimfMonetary PolicyimfOutput gapimfPrice LevelimfPricesimfProduction and Operations ManagementimfProductionimfReal exchange ratesimfReal interest ratesimfUnited StatesimfEconomic policyMathematical models.EconomicsMathematical models.BankingBanks and BankingCentral bank policy rateCurrencyDeflationEconomic theoryFinanceFinancial servicesForeign ExchangeForeign exchangeInflationInterest ratesInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics: ProductionModel Construction and EstimationMonetary PolicyOutput gapPrice LevelPricesProduction and Operations ManagementProductionReal exchange ratesReal interest rates332.152Carabenciov Ioan1815840Freedman Charles1139411Garcia-Saltos Roberto1374858Kamenik Ondrej1815841Laxton Douglas1594457Manchev Petar1815842International Monetary Fund.DcWaIMFBOOK9910971234603321GPM64371372UNINA