05450oam 22012014 450 991097075630332120250426110117.0978661284095197814623800151462380018978145278137214527813709781451870022145187002797812828409591282840959(CKB)3170000000055038(EBL)1607890(SSID)ssj0000943268(PQKBManifestationID)11523888(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943268(PQKBWorkID)10977403(PQKB)11311479(OCoLC)568151216(MiAaPQ)EBC1607890(IMF)WPIEE2008144(IMF)WPIEA2008144WPIEA2008144(EXLCZ)99317000000005503820020129d2008 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrSudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance /Jun Kim1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2008.1 online resource (36 p.)IMF Working Papers"June 2008."9781451914559 1451914555 Includes bibliographical references (p. 34).Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; III. Model Calibration; IV. Concluding Remarks; Text Tables; 1. Actual and Calibrated Optimal Reserves for Selected EM Countries: 1993-2006; 2. Implied Probability of a Sudden Stop for Selected EM Countries: 1994-2007; 3. IMF Arrangements for Selected EM Countries: 1993-2006; Text Figures; 1. Actual and Calibrated Optimal Reserves for Selected EM Countries: 1993-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; 2. Implied Probability of a Sudden Stop for Selected EM Countries: 1994-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey3. Actual θ and Default Threshold θ* for Selected EM Countries: 1993-A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; 4. Sources of Reserve Accumulation for Selected EM Countries: 1993-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; Appendix: Creditor Coordination Problem; ReferencesThis paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the global games framework of Morris and Shin to establish a unique relationship between the probability of a sudden stop and the level of reserves. The calibration results for 15 selected emerging market countries in Latin America, Asia and other regions over the sample period of 1993-2006 suggest that the risk of sudden stops may have declined to a low level in recent years in all countries in the sample. The results also suggest that Asia and Russia may have been significantly over insured since early 2000s with estimated excess reserves of US$ 1 trillion in total at end-2006.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2008/144Bank reservesDeveloping countriesEconometric modelsFinancial crisesDeveloping countriesEconometric modelsBalance of paymentsimfBankingimfBanks and BankingimfCapital account crisisimfCapital movementsimfCurrent Account AdjustmentimfCurrent accountimfEmerging and frontier financial marketsimfExports and ImportsimfFinanceimfFinance: GeneralimfFinancial services industryimfForeign exchange reservesimfGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfInternational economicsimfInternational InvestmentimfLong-term Capital MovementsimfMonetary PolicyimfReserves accumulationimfShort-term Capital MovementsimfSudden stopsimfTurkeyimfBank reservesEconometric models.Financial crisesEconometric models.Balance of paymentsBankingBanks and BankingCapital account crisisCapital movementsCurrent Account AdjustmentCurrent accountEmerging and frontier financial marketsExports and ImportsFinanceFinance: GeneralFinancial services industryForeign exchange reservesGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)International economicsInternational InvestmentLong-term Capital MovementsMonetary PolicyReserves accumulationShort-term Capital MovementsSudden stops338.28310Kim Jun1647813International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910970756303321Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance4372579UNINA