06168oam 22011894 450 991097028590332120250426110806.09781475524802147552480397814755661301475566131(CKB)2670000000278884(EBL)1606835(SSID)ssj0000940788(PQKBManifestationID)11528531(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940788(PQKBWorkID)10955963(PQKB)10860306(MiAaPQ)EBC1606835(Au-PeEL)EBL1606835(CaPaEBR)ebr10627105(OCoLC)800083422(IMF)WPIEE2012175(IMF)WPIEA2012175WPIEA2012175(EXLCZ)99267000000027888420020129d2012 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrInternational Capital Flows and Debt Dynamics /Martin Evans1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (60 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/12/175"July 2012."9781475581218 1475581211 9781475505238 147550523X Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 International Assets, Liabilities, Returns and Trade Flows; 2.1 The Balance of Payments and Consolidated Budget Constraint; 2.2 Trade Flows, Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice; List of Figures; 1 Alternative Measures of the U.S. External Position; 3 A Model of Capital Flow Dynamics; 3.1 Approximating the Consolidated Budget Constraint; 3.2 Net Positions and Capital Flows; 3.3 Gross Positions and Capital Flows; 3.4 Equilibrium Positions and Capital Flows; 4 Data and Estimation; 4.1 Data; 4.2 Adjusting Trade Flows2 Trends In U.S. Foreign Assets, Liabilities and Real Trade Flows 4.3 Sample Statistics; 3 Approximation Accuracy; List of Tables; 1 Summary Statistics; 2 Returns and Portfolio Shares; 4.4 Estimation; 4 Changes in the Composition of Asset and Liability Portfolios; 3 Granger Causality Tests; 5 Results; 5.1 Net Position Dynamics; 5 Historical Behavior of the U.S. Net External Position and its Components; 4 Variance Decompositions of xp[sub(t)]; 5.2 Gross Position Dynamics; 6 Historical Behavior of U.S. Gross Foreign Asset and Liability Positions and their Components5 Variance Decompositions for δ[sup(FA)][sub(t)] and δ[sup(PL)][sub(t)] 5.3 Net Capital Flows; 7 Variance Contributions of Trade and Returns to U.S. Net Capital Flows; 8 Variance Contributions of Net Capital Flows; 5.4 Gross Capital Flows; 9 Historical Behavior of U.S. Gross Foreign Asset and Liability Positions and their Components; 10 Variance Contributions to Gross Capital Flows; 11 Variance Contributions of Gross Capital Flows; 6 U.S. Returns and The Exorbitant Privilege; 6.1 Portfolio Composition; 6 Portfolio Returns and Their Components12 Composition Effects and the size of the Valuation Channel 6.2 The Role of the Dollar; 7 Returns and the Dollar Depreciation Rates; 13 The U.S. Net External Position and the Role of the Dollar; 7 ConclusionThis paper presents a new model for studying international capital flows and debt dynamics that emphasizes the role played by expectations concerning future trade flows and returns. I use the model to estimate the drivers of the U.S. external position and capital flows between 1973 and 2008. The estimates show that most of the secular rise in U.S. international indebtedness is attributable to growing optimism about future returns on U.S. holdings of foreign equity and FDI assets. They also show that the transformation of world savings into risky assets by the U.S. had little effect on its external position, but the expected future real depreciation of the dollar allowed the U.S. to sustain a higher level of international debt after the 1990s.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/175Capital movementsDebtBalance of paymentsimfBalance of tradeimfCapital flowsimfCapital movementsimfCurrent Account AdjustmentimfEmpirical Studies of TradeimfExports and ImportsimfExternal positionimfForeign assetsimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign liabilitiesimfInternational economicsimfInternational financeimfInternational InvestmentimfInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsimfInternational tradeimfInvestments, ForeignimfLong-term Capital MovementsimfShort-term Capital MovementsimfTrade balanceimfUnited StatesimfCapital movements.Debt.Balance of paymentsBalance of tradeCapital flowsCapital movementsCurrent Account AdjustmentEmpirical Studies of TradeExports and ImportsExternal positionForeign assetsForeign ExchangeForeign liabilitiesInternational economicsInternational financeInternational InvestmentInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsInternational tradeInvestments, ForeignLong-term Capital MovementsShort-term Capital MovementsTrade balance332.042Evans Martin106630DcWaIMFBOOK9910970285903321International Capital Flows and Debt Dynamics4372950UNINA