05701oam 22011894 450 991097028510332120250426110648.09781475558913147555891097814755346411475534647(CKB)2670000000278850(EBL)1606822(SSID)ssj0000943221(PQKBManifestationID)11503274(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943221(PQKBWorkID)10975616(PQKB)10666785(Au-PeEL)EBL1606822(CaPaEBR)ebr10627071(OCoLC)797981387(IMF)WPIEE2012169(IMF)WPIEA2012169(MiAaPQ)EBC1606822WPIEA2012169(EXLCZ)99267000000027885020020129d2012 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrOn the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method /Marco Marini, Tommaso Di Fonzo1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (22 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.9781475591057 1475591055 9781475505177 1475505175 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Denton PFD Benchmarking Method; III. The Enhanced Denton PFD Method for Extrapolation; A. An Approximation of the Enhanced PFD Method; IV. An Example with Artificial Data; Tables; 1. Extrapolation Using Forecast BI Ratios (Example 6.2, QNA Manual, 2001); 2. Enhanced Denton PFD: Comparison Between the Shortcut and the Analytical Solution; 3. Enhanced Denton PFD: Comparison with the Indicator Series; 4. Basic Denton PFD vs. Enhanced Denton PFD: MSD of Quarterly Growth Rates5. Enhanced Denton PFD: Comparison Between the Analytical Solution and the Shortcut Version with Different BI RatiosV. An Application to Real-Life Data; 6. Forecasting Manufacturing Value Added in 2009 Using IPI: a Comparison Between PFD and EPFD; VI. Conclusions; ReferencesStatistical offices have often recourse to benchmarking methods for compiling quarterly national accounts (QNA). Benchmarking methods employ quarterly indicator series (i) to distribute annual, more reliable series of national accounts and (ii) to extrapolate the most recent quarters not yet covered by annual benchmarks. The Proportional First Differences (PFD) benchmarking method proposed by Denton (1971) is a widely used solution for distribution, but in extrapolation it may suffer when the movements in the indicator series do not match consistently the movements in the target annual benchmarks. For this reason, an enhanced formula for extrapolation was recommended by the IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation (2001). We discuss the rationale behind this technique, and propose a matrix formulation of it. In addition, we present applications of the enhanced formula to artificial and real-life benchmarking examples showing how the extrapolations for the most recent quarters can be improved.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/169Benchmarking (Management)Managerial accountingData AccessimfDiffusion ProcessesimfDynamic AnalysisimfDynamic Quantile RegressionsimfDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsimfGeneral Aggregative Models: GeneralimfIndustrial productionimfIndustriesimfIndustries: GeneralimfIndustries: ManufacturingimfIndustry Studies: Manufacturing: GeneralimfMacroeconomicsimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfManufacturing industriesimfManufacturingimfMethodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic DataimfNational accountsimfNational incomeimfOptimization TechniquesimfProgramming ModelsimfTime-Series ModelsimfKorea, Republic ofimfBenchmarking (Management)Managerial accounting.Data AccessDiffusion ProcessesDynamic AnalysisDynamic Quantile RegressionsDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsGeneral Aggregative Models: GeneralIndustrial productionIndustriesIndustries: GeneralIndustries: ManufacturingIndustry Studies: Manufacturing: GeneralMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics: ProductionManufacturing industriesManufacturingMethodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic DataNational accountsNational incomeOptimization TechniquesProgramming ModelsTime-Series Models300Marini Marco734096Di Fonzo Tommaso148119DcWaIMFBOOK9910970285103321On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method4372348UNINA