05554oam 22012974 450 991097018680332120250426110459.0978661284149197814623981711462398170978145273798014527379839781451870565145187056697812828414991282841491(CKB)3170000000055100(EBL)1608006(SSID)ssj0000944023(PQKBManifestationID)11528593(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000944023(PQKBWorkID)10982811(PQKB)11787939(OCoLC)763082956(IMF)WPIEE2008198(MiAaPQ)EBC1608006(IMF)WPIEA2008198WPIEA2008198(EXLCZ)99317000000005510020020129d2008 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrEquilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries /Alun Thomas, Jun Kim, Aqib Aslam1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2008.1 online resource (26 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/08/198Description based upon print version of record.9781451915099 1451915098 Contents; I. Introduction; II. Basic Structure of Alternative Methodology; Existing analysis; III. Model; A. General Model; B. Model Application to Oil Based Economy; IV. Estimation; V. Sensitivity Tests of the Annual Return on Oil Wealth; VI. Equilibrium Non-oil Current Account Assessment; A. Historical Accuracy of the Consumption Smoothing Model; B. Country Estimates of Non-oil Current Account; VII. Conclusions; ReferencesThis paper introduces a methodology for assessing external balance in countries with large stocks of non-renewable resources based on oil stock data, and applies it to selected oil producing countries. The methodology uses a stock approach (instead of the more traditional flow approach) to estimate the equilibrium non-oil current account consistent with optimal consumption smoothing. One of the benefits of the stock approach is that geological data for oil reserves can be used to estimate oil wealth; however, the methodology makes the estimated non-oil current account norm very sensitive to oil price projections. Based on an oil price about US$70 per barrel prevailing in the summer of 2007, the baseline estimates indicate that the non-oil current accounts for most of the countries in the sample are broadly in equilibrium. By the same token, using oil price projections as of the summer of 2008 implies large disparities between the equilibrium non-oil current account position and the medium term forecast for all countries in the sample except for Malaysia.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2008/198Equilibrium (Economics)Econometric modelsBalance of paymentsEconometric modelsPetroleum industry and tradeEconometric modelsBalance of paymentsimfConsumptionimfCurrent Account AdjustmentimfCurrent accountimfEconomicsimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfEnergy: GeneralimfExports and ImportsimfIndustries: EnergyimfInternational economicsimfInvestment & securitiesimfInvestments: EnergyimfMacroeconomicsimfMacroeconomics: ConsumptionimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfOil pricesimfOil productionimfOilimfPetroleum industry and tradeimfPetroleum, oil & gas industriesimfPricesimfSavingimfShort-term Capital MovementsimfWealthimfUnited Arab EmiratesimfEquilibrium (Economics)Econometric models.Balance of paymentsEconometric models.Petroleum industry and tradeEconometric models.Balance of paymentsConsumptionCurrent Account AdjustmentCurrent accountEconomicsEnergy: Demand and SupplyEnergy: GeneralExports and ImportsIndustries: EnergyInternational economicsInvestment & securitiesInvestments: EnergyMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics: ConsumptionMacroeconomics: ProductionOil pricesOil productionOilPetroleum industry and tradePetroleum, oil & gas industriesPricesSavingShort-term Capital MovementsWealth339.5Thomas Alun1098448Aslam Aqib1815764Kim Jun1647813DcWaIMFBOOK9910970186803321Equilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries4371268UNINA