06044oam 22012014 450 991096984810332120250426110639.097866128434649781462340637146234063697814527389701452738971978145187279814518727989781282843462128284346X(CKB)3170000000055288(EBL)1608340(SSID)ssj0000940864(PQKBManifestationID)11598333(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940864(PQKBWorkID)10956083(PQKB)10242410(OCoLC)649707822(IMF)WPIEE2009132(MiAaPQ)EBC1608340(IMF)WPIEA2009132WPIEA2009132(EXLCZ)99317000000005528820020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrForecasting Inflation in Sudan /Kenji Moriyama, Abdul Naseer1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (27 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.9781451917086 1451917082 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Recent Developments; Figures; 1. Average and Standard Deviation of Inflation, 2000-08; 2. Monthly Inflation (12-Month) in Sudan, January 2000-October 2008; III. Methodology; A. Which Inflation Should Be Forecasted?; 3. Overall Inflation, 2000-08; B. Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model; 4. Cumulative Spectral Distribution of Inflation, 2000-08; C. Leading Indicators; 5. Currency Holding and Islamic Dummies, 2005-08; 6. Candidates of Leading Indicators; IV. Results; A. ARMA Model; 7. Actual and Projected Inflation Based on the Estimated ARMA ModelsB. Granger Causality Tests for Leading IndicatorsV. Implications-What Can be said from the Estimated Model and the Tests?; A. Can the Estimated Model Explain the Surge of Inflation in 2007 and 2008?; 8. Forecasted Inflation, July 2007-December 2008; 9. Forecast Errors of the Model and Bread Contribution to Inflation, July 2007-October 2008; B. Forecasting Inflation for 2009 and 2010; 10. Forecasted Inflation; 11. Inflation Forecast Based on ARMA (4,5), July 2008-December 2010; C. Leading Indicators (Private Sector Credit Growth and Wheat Price Inflation)12. Oil Price Projections, World Economic Outlook, 2000-1013. Wheat Price Projections, World Economic Outlook, 2000-10; VI. Conclusions; Tables; 1. Estimated ARMA Model of Inflation; 2. Main Statistics of Various ARMA Models, 2000-08; 3. Granger Causality Tests Between Inflation and Leading Indicators, 2000-08; Appendices; I. The Schwartz Information Criterion; II. Estimated ARMA Model for main Monetary Aggregates; Appendix Tables; A1. Estimated ARMA Model of Broad money, 2000-08; ReferencesThis paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/132Inflation (Finance)SudanEconomic forecastingSudanAgricultural pricesimfAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand AnalysisimfBusiness cyclesimfCyclical indicatorsimfDeflationimfEconomic ForecastingimfEconomic forecastingimfEconomic growthimfForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsimfForecastingimfInflationimfMacroeconomicsimfMonetary baseimfMonetary economicsimfMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralimfMoney and Monetary PolicyimfMoney supplyimfPrice LevelimfPricesimfPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfSudanimfInflation (Finance)Economic forecastingAgricultural pricesAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand AnalysisBusiness cyclesCyclical indicatorsDeflationEconomic ForecastingEconomic forecastingEconomic growthForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsForecastingInflationMacroeconomicsMonetary baseMonetary economicsMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralMoney and Monetary PolicyMoney supplyPrice LevelPricesPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)338.9624Moriyama Kenji1815649Naseer Abdul1815650International Monetary Fund.DcWaIMFBOOK9910969848103321Forecasting Inflation in Sudan4371118UNINA