03927nam 2200709Ia 450 991096615760332120200520144314.0978026229162002622916229780262283878026228387597814356549901435654994(CKB)1000000000536337(OCoLC)463189465(CaPaEBR)ebrary10235152(SSID)ssj0000163204(PQKBManifestationID)11167012(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000163204(PQKBWorkID)10108497(PQKB)10733619(OCoLC)244795966(OCoLC)991920208(OCoLC-P)244795966(MaCbMITP)7582(Au-PeEL)EBL3338904(CaPaEBR)ebr10235152(PPN)170238792(MiAaPQ)EBC3338904(FR-PaCSA)88800132(FRCYB88800132)88800132(EXLCZ)99100000000053633720071109d2008 uy 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrGlobal catastrophes and trends the next fifty years /Vaclav Smil1st ed.Cambridge, MA MIT Pressc20081 online resource (322 p.)Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph9780262518222 0262518228 9780262195867 0262195860 Includes bibliographical references and indexes.Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- 1 How (Not) to Look Ahead -- 2 Fatal Discontinuities -- 3 Unfolding Trends -- 4 Environmental Change -- 5 Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty -- Appendix A Units and Abbreviations, Prefixes -- Appendix B Acronyms -- References -- Name Index -- Subject Index.From the Publisher: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to, and plan for, the consequences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance: the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, the United States, and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change-in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change-and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.Environmental risk assessmentNatural disastersEnvironmental risk assessment.Natural disasters.363.34Smil Vaclav140188MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910966157603321Global catastrophes and trends4335790UNINA