05885oam 22012614 450 991096589480332120250426110715.0978661284526097814623577721462357776978145272079114527207979781282845268128284526897814519621781451962177(CKB)3170000000055418(SSID)ssj0001477882(PQKBManifestationID)11892584(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477882(PQKBWorkID)11461921(PQKB)10062116(OCoLC)680613531(IMF)WPIEE2010017(MiAaPQ)EBC1606058(IMF)WPIEA2010017WPIEA2010017(EXLCZ)99317000000005541820020129d2010 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrInflation in Tajikistan : Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges /Svetlana Vtyurina, Fahad Alturki1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2010.19 p. illIMF Working PapersBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph9781451918663 1451918666 Includes bibliographical references.Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in Tajikistan -- III. Empirical Investigation -- IV. Summary and Considerations -- References -- Tables -- 1. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests -- 2. Johansen Co-Integration Tests -- 3. Model Restriction and Weak Exogeneity Tests -- 4. Main Statistics of Various ARMA Models, 1999-2009 -- Exhibits and Figures -- Exhibit -- 1. Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Tajikistan -- Figures -- 1. NBT Refinancing Rate and Bank Lending Rates, 2001-08 -- 2. Money Growth and Inflation, 2001-08 -- 3. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation 2001Q1-2010Q4 -- 4. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation 2001Q4-2010Q4 -- 5. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation, 1999-2009 -- 6. Tajikistan: Inflation Forecast Based on BARMA (2,2) Model, Dec. 2007-June 2009 -- 7. Tajikistan: Inflation Forecast Based on ARMA (2,2) Model, Dec. 2008-Dec. 2010.This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2010/017Inflation (Finance)TajikistanMonetary policyTajikistanCurrencyimfDeflationimfEconometric modelsimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfEconometricsimfEconomic ForecastingimfEconomic forecastingimfExchange ratesimfForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsimfForecastingimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign exchangeimfInflationimfMacroeconomicsimfMonetary baseimfMonetary economicsimfMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralimfMoney and Monetary PolicyimfMoney supplyimfMultiple or Simultaneous Equation ModelsimfMultiple Variables: GeneralimfPrice LevelimfPricesimfVector error correction modelsimfTajikistan, Republic ofimfInflation (Finance)Monetary policyCurrencyDeflationEconometric modelsEconometrics & economic statisticsEconometricsEconomic ForecastingEconomic forecastingExchange ratesForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsForecastingForeign ExchangeForeign exchangeInflationMacroeconomicsMonetary baseMonetary economicsMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralMoney and Monetary PolicyMoney supplyMultiple or Simultaneous Equation ModelsMultiple Variables: GeneralPrice LevelPricesVector error correction models332.1Vtyurina Svetlana1816369Alturki Fahad1815985International Monetary Fund.DcWaIMFBOOK9910965894803321Inflation in Tajikistan4372398UNINA