06325oam 22013814 450 991096577850332120250426110925.09781475524857147552485497814755373211475537328(CKB)2670000000278830(EBL)1606987(SSID)ssj0000949360(PQKBManifestationID)11541305(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000949360(PQKBWorkID)10996277(PQKB)11355306(MiAaPQ)EBC1606987(Au-PeEL)EBL1606987(CaPaEBR)ebr10627051(OCoLC)870245050(IMF)WPIEE2012227(IMF)WPIEA2012227WPIEA2012227(EXLCZ)99267000000027883020020129d2012 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrDeterminants of Growth Spells : Is Africa Different? /Charalambos Tsangarides1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (33 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.9781475566185 1475566182 9781475510225 1475510225 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Identifying Growth Spells and Their Determinants; A. From Structural Breaks to Growth Spells; B. Determinants of Growth Spells; III. Empirical Strategy; A. Survival Models; B. BMA for survival models; C. Model Specification and Africa Interactions; IV. Results; A. Impact of Model Uncertainty; B. Robustness Analysis Using BMA; V. Conclusion; References; Tables; 1. Growth Breaks by Country Group; 2. Stylized Facts about Growth Spells; 3. Evidence for Lack of Robustness from Ad Hoc Growth Regressions4. Posterior Coefficient Estimates for Growth Spells for Africa, Non-Africa, and World Figures; 1a. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus; 1b. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus in Africa; 2a. Distribution of Upbreaks; 2b. Distribution of Downbreaks; 3. Duration of Growth Spells and Explanatory Variables; AppendixDo growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine determinants of growth spells in Africa and the rest of the world using Bayesian Mode Averaging techniques for proportional hazards models. We define growth spells as periods of sustained growth episodes between growth accelerations and decelerations and then relate the probability that a growth spell ends to various determinants including exogenous shocks, physical and human capital, macroeconomic policy, and sociopolitical factors. Our analysis suggests that determinants of growth spells in Africa are different from those in the rest of the world. The majority of the identified robust determinants have a distinct impact in only one of the two samples: initial income, terms of trade, exchange rate undervaluation and inflation, influence spells only in the world sample, while openness and droughts seem to only affect Africa. In addition, a few common determinants - proxies for human and physical capital and changes in the world interest rate - have very different marginal effects in the two samples.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/227Economic developmentAfricaBayesian Analysis: GeneralimfCurrencyimfEconomic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: GeneralimfEconomic policyimfEmpirical Studies of TradeimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfExchange ratesimfExports and ImportsimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign exchangeimfHuman CapitalimfHuman capitalimfIncome economicsimfIncomeimfInternational economicsimfInternational tradeimfLabor ProductivityimfLaborimfLabourimfMacroeconomic Analyses of Economic DevelopmentimfMacroeconomicsimfNational accountsimfNternational cooperationimfOccupational ChoiceimfOil pricesimfPersonal incomeimfPersonal Income, Wealth, and Their DistributionsimfPricesimfSkillsimfTerms of tradeimfAfricaEconomic conditionsUnited StatesimfEconomic developmentBayesian Analysis: GeneralCurrencyEconomic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: GeneralEconomic policyEmpirical Studies of TradeEnergy: Demand and SupplyExchange ratesExports and ImportsForeign ExchangeForeign exchangeHuman CapitalHuman capitalIncome economicsIncomeInternational economicsInternational tradeLabor ProductivityLaborLabourMacroeconomic Analyses of Economic DevelopmentMacroeconomicsNational accountsNternational cooperationOccupational ChoiceOil pricesPersonal incomePersonal Income, Wealth, and Their DistributionsPricesSkillsTerms of trade332.1/52Tsangarides Charalambos1462110DcWaIMFBOOK9910965778503321Determinants of Growth Spells4371393UNINA