04705oam 22011774 450 991096559320332120250426110553.0978661284389197814623688841462368883978145274804714527480479781282843899128284389397814518732521451873255(CKB)3170000000055330(EBL)1608415(SSID)ssj0001477421(PQKBManifestationID)11818672(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477421(PQKBWorkID)11450170(PQKB)11762841(OCoLC)649426821(IMF)WPIEE2009178(MiAaPQ)EBC1608415(IMF)WPIEA2009178WPIEA2009178(EXLCZ)99317000000005533020020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrIncorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart /Prakash Kannan, Selim Elekdag1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (23 p.)IMF Working Papers"August 2009."9781451917512 1451917511 Contents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; ReferencesThis paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/178Economic forecastingEconometric modelsTime-series analysisAsset pricesimfDeflationimfDerivative securitiesimfEconomic ForecastingimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfFinanceimfFinancial InstrumentsimfForecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationsimfGdp forecastingimfInflationimfInstitutional InvestorsimfInvestments: OptionsimfMacroeconomicsimfNational incomeimfNon-bank Financial InstitutionsimfOil pricesimfOptionsimfPension FundsimfPrice LevelimfPricesimfUnited StatesimfEconomic forecastingEconometric models.Time-series analysis.Asset pricesDeflationDerivative securitiesEconomic ForecastingEnergy: Demand and SupplyFinanceFinancial InstrumentsForecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationsGdp forecastingInflationInstitutional InvestorsInvestments: OptionsMacroeconomicsNational incomeNon-bank Financial InstitutionsOil pricesOptionsPension FundsPrice LevelPrices336.54Kannan Prakash1800219Elekdag Selim1104193International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910965593203321Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart4371346UNINA