02750nam 2200613Ia 450 991096393290332120251116165223.01-135-61461-X1-135-61462-81-282-32139-097866123213991-4106-1083-710.4324/9781410610836 (CKB)1000000000244570(EBL)238914(OCoLC)475949677(SSID)ssj0000124272(PQKBManifestationID)11140843(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000124272(PQKBWorkID)10016364(PQKB)11587116(MiAaPQ)EBC238914(Au-PeEL)EBL238914(CaPaEBR)ebr10118422(CaONFJC)MIL232139(EXLCZ)99100000000024457020040127d2004 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrCognition and chance the psychology of probabilistic reasoning /Raymond S. NickersonMahwah, N.J. ;London Lawrence Erlbaum20041 online resource (450 p.)Description based upon print version of record.0-8058-4899-1 0-8058-4898-3 Includes bibliographical references and index.Contents; Preface; 1. Probability and Chance; 2. Randomness; 3. Coincidences; 4. Inverse Probability and the Reverend Tnomas Bayes; 5. Some Instructive Problems; 6. Some Probability Paradoxes and Dilemmas; 7. Statistics; 8. Estimation and Prediction; 9. Perception of Covariation and Contingency; 10. Choice under Uncertainty; 11. People as Intuitive Probabilists; 12. Concluding Comments; References; Author Index; Subject IndexLack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how cProbabilitiesRisk assessmentProbabilities.Risk assessment.519.287Nickerson Raymond S724078MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910963932903321Cognition and chance4497549UNINA