06036oam 22012134 450 991096213160332120250426110608.0978661284449297814623174171462317413978145187399314518739999781282844490128284449097814527540931452754098(CKB)3170000000055384(SSID)ssj0000942102(PQKBManifestationID)11502221(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942102(PQKBWorkID)10971989(PQKB)11787770(OCoLC)680613649(IMF)WPIEE2009252(MiAaPQ)EBC1605967(IMF)WPIEA2009252WPIEA2009252(EXLCZ)99317000000005538420020129d2009 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrMacroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts /Alasdair Scott, Pau Rabanal, Prakash Kannan1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.39 p. illIMF Working Papers"November 2009".9781451918137 1451918135 Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Asset Price Busts in the Modern Era -- A. Defining Asset Price Busts -- B. Patterns in macroeconomic Variables in the Run-Up to a Bust -- III. How Good are These Variables as Indicators of Asset Price Busts? -- IV. Macroeconomic Patterns Ahead of the Current Crisis -- A. The Role of Monetary Policy -- V. Conclusion -- References -- Data Appendix -- Tables -- 1. House Price and Stock Price Busts from 1970 to 2008 -- 2. Classification of Observations Based on variable Thresholds -- 3. Percentiles Used as Thresholds for Alarms -- 4. Marginal Probabilities Based on Probit Regressions -- Figures -- 1. Asset Price Busts -- 2. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During House Price Busts -- 3. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During Stock Price Busts -- 4. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During High-Cost and Other House Price Busts, 1985-2008 -- 5. The Probability of an Asset Price Bust -- 6. The Failure of the Indicators to Predict an Asset Price Bust -- 7. Recent Developments in House and Stock Prices -- 8. Warning Signs for Recent House Price Busts -- 9. Macroeconomic Patterns Underlying Recent House Price Booms -- 10. Recent House Price Booms and Household Balance Sheets -- 11. Monetary Conditions Leading up to the Current Crisis -- 12. Inflation and Output for Advnaced Economies in Recent Years -- 13. House Prices and Monetary Conditions -- 14. Stock Prices and Monetary Conditions -- 15. Growth Rate of Nominal Credit Relative to GDP and Real Policy Rates -- 16. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During House Price Busts -- 17. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During Stock Price Busts.We find that inflation, output and the stance of monetary policy do not typically display unusual behavior ahead of asset price busts. By contrast, credit, shares of investment in GDP, current account deficits, and asset prices typically rise, providing useful, if not perfect, leading indicators of asset price busts. These patterns could also be observed in the build-up to the current crisis. Monetary policy was not the main, systematic cause of the current crisis. But, with inflation typically under control, central banks effectively accommodated these growing imbalances, raising the risk of damaging busts.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/252Assets (Accounting)PricesMacroeconomicsMonetary policyAsset pricesimfBalance of paymentsimfCreditimfCurrent Account AdjustmentimfCurrent account balanceimfDeflationimfExports and ImportsimfHousing pricesimfHousing Supply and MarketsimfHousingimfInflationimfInternational economicsimfMacroeconomicsimfMonetary economicsimfMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralimfMoney and Monetary PolicyimfPrice LevelimfPricesimfProperty & real estateimfReal EstateimfShort-term Capital MovementsimfJapanimfAssets (Accounting)Prices.Macroeconomics.Monetary policy.Asset pricesBalance of paymentsCreditCurrent Account AdjustmentCurrent account balanceDeflationExports and ImportsHousing pricesHousing Supply and MarketsHousingInflationInternational economicsMacroeconomicsMonetary economicsMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralMoney and Monetary PolicyPrice LevelPricesProperty & real estateReal EstateShort-term Capital Movements339.53091724Scott Alasdair1815607Kannan Prakash1800219Rabanal Pau1815608International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910962131603321Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts4372530UNINA