06251oam 22012254 450 991096180560332120250426110053.09786612843396978146230330414623033079781452730899145273089X9781451872729145187272097812828433941282843397(CKB)3170000000055277(EBL)1608318(SSID)ssj0000940110(PQKBManifestationID)11518982(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940110(PQKBWorkID)10946574(PQKB)11752652(OCoLC)586097883(MiAaPQ)EBC1608318(IMF)WPIEE2009125(IMF)WPIEA2009125WPIEA2009125(EXLCZ)99317000000005527720020129d2009 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrDecoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (40 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.9781451917017 1451917015 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. The 1998 Russian Crisis; Figures; 1. The Baltic Countries: Responses of Aggregate Demand Components to 1998 Russian Crisis (year-on-year change, in percent); III. Trade and Financial Linkages; 2. The Baltics: Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (in percent of total, 1994-2007); Tables; 1. The Baltics: Sources and Destination of Foreign Direct Investment (in percent of total, 2007); 3 Baltic Countries: Business Cycle Synchronization with Major Trading Partners; IV. Econometric Analysis; A. Vector Auto regression Models2. Variance Decomposition for Baltic Countries' Real GDP (Base VAR Models)4. Baltic Countries: GDP Growth Responses to 1 Percent Shocks from Major Trading Partners and Real Effective Exchange Rate; B. Extended Vector Auto regression Models; 3. Variance Decomposition for Baltic Countries' Real GDP (Extended VAR Models); 5. Baltic Countries: GDP Growth Responses to 1 Percent Shocks from Major Trading Partners, Oil Price Growth and REER; V. Measuring the Channels of Spillovers; 6. The Baltic Countries: Contributions to Spillovers from EU Countries7. The Baltic Countries: Contributions to Spillovers from Russia 8. The Baltic Countries: Contributions to Spillovers from the Scandinavian Region; VI. Conclusions and Lessons for Policy; References; Data Description; Appendices; Tables; A1. The Baltic Countries: Direction of Imports to Major Trading Partners (in percent of total); A2. Structure of Bank Ownership in the Baltic Countries; A3. Results of Unit Root Tests Using the Ng-Perron Procedure; A4. Variance Decomposition Results (Base VAR Models, 1996-2007); A5. Variance Decomposition Results (Extended VAR Models, 1996-2007); FiguresA1. The Baltic Countries: Decomposition of Exports and Imports (in percent of GDP, 1993-2007) A2. Impulse Response Results (Base VAR Models, 1996-2007); A3. Impulse Response Results (Extended VAR Models, 1996-2007); A4. The Baltics: Responses to 1 Percent Shock from the Scandinavian RegionThis paper uses VAR models to examine the magnitude and sources of growth spillovers to the Baltics from key trading partners, as well asfrom the real effective exchange rate (REER). Our results show there are significant cross-country spillovers to the Baltics with those from the EU outweighing spillovers from Russia. Shocks to the REER generally depress growth in the Baltics, and this intensifies over time. We also find that financial and trade channels dominate the transmission of spillovers to the region which partly explains the realization of downside risks to the Baltics from the global slowdown.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/125Econometric modelsBaltic StatesEconomicsBaltic StatesCurrencyimfDiffusion ProcessesimfDynamic Quantile RegressionsimfDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfEconometricsimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfExports and ImportsimfExportsimfExternalitiesimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign exchangeimfInternational economicsimfInternational financeimfMacroeconomicsimfOil pricesimfPricesimfReal effective exchange ratesimfSpilloversimfTime-Series ModelsimfTrade: GeneralimfVector autoregressionimfRussian FederationimfEconometric modelsEconomicsCurrencyDiffusion ProcessesDynamic Quantile RegressionsDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsEconometrics & economic statisticsEconometricsEnergy: Demand and SupplyExports and ImportsExportsExternalitiesForeign ExchangeForeign exchangeInternational economicsInternational financeMacroeconomicsOil pricesPricesReal effective exchange ratesSpilloversTime-Series ModelsTrade: GeneralVector autoregression332.1/52DcWaIMFBOOK9910961805603321Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries4371091UNINA