07155oam 22014414 450 991096180310332120250426110834.0978661284491197814623870381462387039978145275207514527520799781282844919128284491197814519417151451941714(CKB)3170000000055331(SSID)ssj0000940034(PQKBManifestationID)11571937(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940034(PQKBWorkID)10947345(PQKB)11243732(OCoLC)694140986(IMF)WPIEE2009253(MiAaPQ)EBC1605925(IMF)WPIEA2009253WPIEA2009253(EXLCZ)99317000000005533120020129d2009 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrAdding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model /Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Michal Andrle, Haris Munandar, Charles Freedman, Danny Hermawan1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.57 p. illIMF Working Papers"November 2009."9781451918144 1451918143 Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- A. Background -- B. A Brief Outline of Indonesian Economic Developments Over The Sample Period -- II. Benchmark Model -- A. Background -- B. The Specification of The Model -- B.1 Observable variables and data definitions -- B.2 Stochastic processes and model definitions -- B.3 Behavorial equations -- B.4 Cross correlations of disturbances -- III. Extending the Model to Include Financial-Real Linkages -- A. Background -- B. Model Specication Incorporating the US Bank Lending TighteningVariable -- V. Confronting the Model with the Data -- A. Bayesian Estimation -- B. Results -- B.1 Estimates of coeficients -- B.2 Estimates of standard deviation of structural shocks and cross correlations -- B.3 RMSEs -- B.4 Impulse response functions -- VI. Concluding Remarks -- IV. Modifications of the Model for the Indonesian Economy -- References -- Appendix: GPM Data Definitions -- Figures -- 1. Indonesia - Historical Data [1] -- 2. Indonesia - Historical Data [2] -- 3. Indonesia - Historical Data [3] -- 4. Comparison CDS Emerging Countries -- 5. Indonesia Historical Inflation Graph -- 6. Domestic Demand Shock -- 7. Domestic Price Shock -- 8. Domestic Interest Rate Shock -- 9. Domestic Real Exchange Rate Shock -- 10. Shock to the Domestic Target Rate of Inflation -- 11. Demand Shock in the US -- 12. BLT Shock in the US -- Tables -- 1. Results from Posterior Maximization -- 2. Results from Posterior Parameters (standard deviation of structural shocks) -- 3. Results from Posterior Parameters (correlation of structural shocks) -- 4. Root Mean Squared Errors.This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/253Economic forecastingIndonesiaEconometric modelsEconomic forecastingUnited StatesEconometric modelsEconomic forecastingEuropeEconometric modelsEconomic forecastingJapanEconometric modelsInflation (Finance)IndonesiaEconometric modelsInflation (Finance)United StatesEconometric modelsInflation (Finance)EuropeEconometric modelsInflation (Finance)JapanEconometric modelsMonetary policyIndonesiaEconometric modelsMonetary policyUnited StatesEconometric modelsMonetary policyEuropeEconometric modelsMonetary policyJapanEconometric modelsBanks and BankingimfCurrencyimfDeflationimfEconomic theoryimfFinanceimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign exchangeimfInflationimfInterest ratesimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfMacroeconomicsimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfOutput gapimfPrice LevelimfPricesimfProduction and Operations ManagementimfProductionimfReal exchange ratesimfReal interest ratesimfShort term interest ratesimfUnited StatesimfEconomic forecastingEconometric models.Economic forecastingEconometric models.Economic forecastingEconometric models.Economic forecastingEconometric models.Inflation (Finance)Econometric models.Inflation (Finance)Econometric models.Inflation (Finance)Econometric models.Inflation (Finance)Econometric models.Monetary policyEconometric models.Monetary policyEconometric models.Monetary policyEconometric models.Monetary policyEconometric models.Banks and BankingCurrencyDeflationEconomic theoryFinanceForeign ExchangeForeign exchangeInflationInterest ratesInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics: ProductionOutput gapPrice LevelPricesProduction and Operations ManagementProductionReal exchange ratesReal interest ratesShort term interest rates339.53091724Garcia-Saltos Roberto1374858Andrle Michal1197035Freedman Charles1139411Hermawan Danny1815751Laxton Douglas1594457Munandar Haris704589International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910961803103321Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model4371259UNINA