05940oam 22013214 450 991096089000332120250426110532.0978661284292497814623164271462316425978145273796614527379679781451872187145187218697812828429221282842927(CKB)3170000000055232(EBL)1608233(SSID)ssj0000940139(PQKBManifestationID)11518060(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940139(PQKBWorkID)10946365(PQKB)10406129(OCoLC)608485810(IMF)WPIEE2009071(MiAaPQ)EBC1608233(IMF)WPIEA2009071WPIEA2009071(EXLCZ)99317000000005523220020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrECCU Business Cycles : Impact of the U.S. /Yan Sun, Wendell Samuel1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (25 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.9781451916539 1451916531 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Business Cycles and Spillovers; A. Analysis of Business Cycles in the Caribbean; B. Common Trend and Cycle Analysis; C. Transmission of U.S. Shocks to the Caribbean; III. Econometric Methodology and Data; A. The Common Trends and Common Cycles Approach; B. The VAR Analysis; C. The Data; IV. Empirical Results; Tables; 1. Summary Statistics of Real GDP Growth; A. Caribbean Common Trends and Common Cycles; 2. VAR Lag Order Selection; 3. Tests for the Number of Cointegrating Vectors; 4. Growth Elasticities in the Caribbean; B. Spillovers from the U.S. to the ECCU5. Diagnostics of Growth Elasticity ModelsV. Conclusions and Policy Implications; Figures; 1. Three Common Cycles; 2. Four Common Trends; 3. Caribbean Countries: Cyclical Components of Real GDP; 4. Caribbean Countries: Trend Components of Real GDP; 5. ECCU: Responses to One Percent U.S. Growth Shock; 6. ECCU: Country Responses to One Percent U.S. Growth Shock; 7. Antigua and Barbuda: Responses to One Percent U.S. Growth Shock; ReferencesWith a fixed peg to the U.S. dollar for more than three decades, the tourism-dependent Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a close economic relationship with the U.S. This paper analyzes the impact of the United States on ECCU business cycles and identifies possible transmission channels. Using two different approaches (the common trends and common cycles approach of Vahid and Engle (1993) and the standard VAR analysis), it finds that the ECCU economies are very sensitive to both temporary and permanent movements in the U.S. economy and that such linkages have strengthened over time. There is, however, less clear-cut evidence on the transmission channels. United States monetary policy does not appear to be an important channel of influence, while tourism is important for only one ECCU country.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/071Business cyclesUnited StatesEconomicsUnited StatesBalance of paymentsimfBusiness cyclesimfBusiness FluctuationsimfCommodity MarketsimfCommodity pricesimfCyclesimfDiffusion ProcessesimfDynamic Quantile RegressionsimfDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsimfEconometric analysisimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfEconometricsimfEconomic Growth of Open EconomiesimfEconomic growthimfExports and ImportsimfExternalitiesimfFinancial sector policy and analysisimfInternational economicsimfInternational financeimfMacroeconomicsimfPricesimfPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfRemittancesimfSpilloversimfTime-Series ModelsimfVector autoregressionimfUnited StatesimfBusiness cyclesEconomicsBalance of paymentsBusiness cyclesBusiness FluctuationsCommodity MarketsCommodity pricesCyclesDiffusion ProcessesDynamic Quantile RegressionsDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsEconometric analysisEconometrics & economic statisticsEconometricsEconomic Growth of Open EconomiesEconomic growthExports and ImportsExternalitiesFinancial sector policy and analysisInternational economicsInternational financeMacroeconomicsPricesPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)RemittancesSpilloversTime-Series ModelsVector autoregression332.152Sun Yan690256Samuel Wendell1595846DcWaIMFBOOK9910960890003321ECCU Business Cycles4371546UNINA