05864oam 22013334 450 991096007990332120250426110820.09786612843181978146239310714623931019781452713748145271374X9781451872507145187250X97812828431891282843184(CKB)3170000000055264(EBL)1608293(SSID)ssj0000939925(PQKBManifestationID)11600605(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939925(PQKBWorkID)10938812(PQKB)10476928(OCoLC)645458446(IMF)WPIEE2009103(MiAaPQ)EBC1608293(IMF)WPIEA2009103WPIEA2009103(EXLCZ)99317000000005526420020129d2009 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrThe Persistence of Capital Account Crises /Mauro Mecagni, Ruben Atoyan, David Hofman1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (29 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.9781451916805 1451916809 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Conceptual Framework and Methodology; A. Crisis Persistence, Complexity, and Macroeconomic Effects; Figures; 1. Average Duration and Crisis Complexity; Tables; 1. Duration and Nature of Crises; 2. Crisis Complexity, Duration, and Macroeconomic Costs; B. Determinants of the Duration of Crises; 3. Post-Crisis Vulnerabilities; C. Econometric Methodology; III. Persistence of Capital Account Crises; A. Estimation Results and Robustness Tests; 2. Estimation Results for the Capital Account Crises Duration Model; Boxes; 1. Some Further Diagnostic ResultsB. Counterfactual Experiments 3. Descriptive Statistics for the Model Variables; 4. Predicted Probabilities of Staying in Crisis under Different Scenarios; 5. Increase in Predicted Probability of Exit from Crisis under Various Scenarios; 6. Reduction in Predicted Crisis Duration under Various Scenarios; IV. Conclusions; Appendices; 1. Measuring the Duration of Capital Account Crises; 2. A Model for the Duration of Capital Account Crises; ReferencesThis study contributes to the literature on capital account crises in two ways. First, our analysis of crisis episodes between 1994 and 2002 establishes a clear relationship between the persistence of crises, their complexity, and the intensity of movement of key macroeconomic variables. Second, we provide a systematic examination of the determinants of crisis duration. Our econometric analysis suggests that initial conditions and the external environment plays a key role in determining crisis persistence. The policy response also matters, but cannot offset a record of poor past policies. Overall, the results underscore the critical importance of crisis prevention efforts.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/103Capital movementsFinancial crisesBalance of paymentsimfBanks and BankingimfCapital account crisisimfCurrencyimfCurrent Account AdjustmentimfDebts, ExternalimfDuration AnalysisimfEconomic & financial crises & disastersimfExchange rate arrangementsimfExports and ImportsimfExternal debtimfFinanceimfFinancial CrisesimfFinancial crisesimfFinancial Risk ManagementimfFinancial servicesimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign exchangeimfIndex Numbers and AggregationimfInterest ratesimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfInternational economicsimfInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsimfLeading indicatorsimfReal interest ratesimfShort-term Capital MovementsimfTurkeyimfCapital movements.Financial crises.Balance of paymentsBanks and BankingCapital account crisisCurrencyCurrent Account AdjustmentDebts, ExternalDuration AnalysisEconomic & financial crises & disastersExchange rate arrangementsExports and ImportsExternal debtFinanceFinancial CrisesFinancial crisesFinancial Risk ManagementFinancial servicesForeign ExchangeForeign exchangeIndex Numbers and AggregationInterest ratesInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsInternational economicsInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsLeading indicatorsReal interest ratesShort-term Capital Movements332.152Mecagni Mauro453540Atoyan Ruben855108Hofman David1815880DcWaIMFBOOK9910960079903321The Persistence of Capital Account Crises4372829UNINA