04080oam 2200721I 450 991095859730332120251117020844.01-280-87381-797866137151281-136-53698-11-136-53697-31-84977-574-510.4324/9781849775748 (CKB)2670000000058394(EBL)605284(OCoLC)689997472(SSID)ssj0000458067(PQKBManifestationID)11298362(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000458067(PQKBWorkID)10420106(PQKB)10653324(OCoLC)801404266(Au-PeEL)EBL605284(CaPaEBR)ebr10578079(CaONFJC)MIL371512(OCoLC)858749064(MiAaPQ)EBC605284(EXLCZ)99267000000005839420180706d2010 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrForesight in action developing policy-oriented scenarios /Marjolein B.A. van Asselt. [et al.]1st ed.London ;Washington, D.C. :Earthscan,2010.1 online resource (193 p.)Earthscan risk in society seriesDescription based upon print version of record.1-138-86699-7 1-84407-677-6 Includes bibliographical references and index.Foresight in Action Developig Policy-Oriented Scenarios; Copyright; Contents; List of Figures, Tables and Boxes; Acknowledgements; List of Acronyms and Abbreviations; 1 Researching Policy-Oriented Foresight in Action; Aims; Introduction to foresight; Dutch foresight; Research questions; Research approach; Audience; Structure of the book; 2 First Impressions of Foresight Practice; Forecasting and foresight; Preparing the journey; Conclusions; 3 Dealing with Policy; Introduction; Policy-free scenarios; Policy-free and policy-oriented foresight; The no (significant) policy change principleStruggling with policyPolicy at the framing level; Conclusions; 4 Practising the Scenario Matrix; Attending to the scenario matrix; Textbook descriptions: The backbone functional meaning; Getting started: Backbone and foundation; Analysing multiple representations; Multiplicity continues to reign: The scaffold functional meaning; More functional meanings: The showcase; Conclusions; 5 Dealing with Prospective Uncertainty; Prospective uncertainty; Uncertainty awareness; Uncertainty manners; The danger of 'certainification'; Conclusions; 6 The Past, the Present and the Future; IntroductionMeantimeTemporal repertoires; A case in time; Discontinuity in foresight; Conclusions; 7 Reflection on Action; Summary of findings; Discussion; From reflection on action to reflection in action; Lessons for policy audiences; References; Appendix; IndexAssessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, proEarthscan risk in society series.Political planningResearchMethodologyRisk managementPolitical planning.ResearchMethodology.Risk management.320.6Asselt M. B. A. van887602MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910958597303321Foresight in action4492073UNINA