05246oam 22012134 450 991095718840332120250426110454.0978661284286397814623144091462314406978128284286112828428629781451872125145187212797814519953431451995342(CKB)3170000000055230(SSID)ssj0000940118(PQKBManifestationID)11576141(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940118(PQKBWorkID)10946290(PQKB)11211696(OCoLC)550683377(IMF)WPIEE2009065(MiAaPQ)EBC1605895(IMF)WPIEA2009065WPIEA2009065(EXLCZ)99317000000005523020020129d2009 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrDeveloping a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT) /Douglas Laxton, Alasdair Scott, David Rose1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.65 p. illIMF Working PapersBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph9781451916478 1451916477 Includes bibliographical references.Intro -- CONTENTS -- I. Introduction -- II. Developing a Decision-Making Process -- III. Benefits of a Successful IFT Regime -- IV. Critical Path For Developing A Structured FPAS -- V. The Quarterly Projection Exercise -- VI. The Core Model -- VII. The Role of Models in the FPAS -- VIII. On the Evolution and Development of the FPAS -- Text Figures -- 1. The Role of Models in the Forecast Process -- 2. From Policy Issues to Policy Recommendations -- 3. How Several Models can be Combined to Impose Consistency -- Appendix Figures -- 4. A Possible Reporting Structure -- 5. Links Between Different Databases -- 6. The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism -- 7. Inflation Expectations 10-Years-Ahead in the United Kingdom -- Appendix Tables -- 1. Estimation of a Model with Model-Consistent Measures of Potential GDP -- 2. Notation: Time Periods Correspond to Calendar Quarters.This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/065Economic forecastingInflation targetingCommunications in revenue administrationimfDeflationimfEconomic ForecastingimfEconomic forecastingimfForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsimfForecastingimfGeneral Aggregative Models: GeneralimfIncome economicsimfInflationimfLabor economicsimfLabor Economics: GeneralimfLaborimfLabourimfMacroeconomicsimfNational accountsimfNational incomeimfPrice LevelimfPricesimfPublic finance & taxationimfPublic FinanceimfRevenueimfTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: GeneralimfEconomic forecasting.Inflation targeting.Communications in revenue administrationDeflationEconomic ForecastingEconomic forecastingForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsForecastingGeneral Aggregative Models: GeneralIncome economicsInflationLabor economicsLabor Economics: GeneralLaborLabourMacroeconomicsNational accountsNational incomePrice LevelPricesPublic finance & taxationPublic FinanceRevenueTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General338.102368Laxton Douglas1594457Rose David1816496Scott Alasdair1815607International Monetary Fund.DcWaIMFBOOK9910957188403321Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)4372609UNINA