05466oam 22014174 450 991095611610332120250426110705.097866138291779781462349791146234979X978145270573614527057399781283516723128351672197814519100871451910088(CKB)3360000000443843(EBL)3012503(SSID)ssj0000948591(PQKBManifestationID)11561806(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000948591(PQKBWorkID)10950783(PQKB)11426773(OCoLC)568151148(IMF)WPIEE2006295(MiAaPQ)EBC3012503(IMF)WPIEA2006295WPIEA2006295(EXLCZ)99336000000044384320020129d2006 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrProbabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt : A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey /Evan Tanner, Issouf Samaké1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2006.1 online resource (44 p.)IMF Working Papers"December 2006."9781451865554 1451865554 Includes bibliographical references (p. 39-42).""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOME PREVIOUS WORK""; ""III. OVERVIEW OF OUR METHODOLOGY""; ""IV. BRAZIL, 2000â€?05""; ""V. MEXICO""; ""VI. TURKEY""; ""VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS""; ""APPENDIX ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES""; ""REFERENCES""This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2006/295Debts, PublicBrazilEconometric modelsDebts, PublicMexicoEconometric modelsDebts, PublicTurkeyEconometric modelsFiscal policyBrazilEconometric modelsFiscal policyMexicoEconometric modelsFiscal policyTurkeyEconometric modelsAllocative EfficiencyimfBanks and BankingimfCost-Benefit AnalysisimfCurrencyimfDebt ManagementimfDebtimfDebts, PublicimfExchange ratesimfFinanceimfFinancial servicesimfFiscal PolicyimfFiscal policyimfFiscal sustainabilityimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign exchangeimfInterest ratesimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfMacroeconomicsimfPolicy CoordinationimfPolicy Designs and ConsistencyimfPolicy ObjectivesimfPublic debtimfPublic finance & taxationimfPublic FinanceimfReal interest ratesimfSovereign DebtimfBrazilimfDebts, PublicEconometric models.Debts, PublicEconometric models.Debts, PublicEconometric models.Fiscal policyEconometric models.Fiscal policyEconometric models.Fiscal policyEconometric models.Allocative EfficiencyBanks and BankingCost-Benefit AnalysisCurrencyDebt ManagementDebtDebts, PublicExchange ratesFinanceFinancial servicesFiscal PolicyFiscal policyFiscal sustainabilityForeign ExchangeForeign exchangeInterest ratesInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsMacroeconomicsPolicy CoordinationPolicy Designs and ConsistencyPolicy ObjectivesPublic debtPublic finance & taxationPublic FinanceReal interest ratesSovereign DebtTanner Evan1815982Samaké Issouf1136558IMF Institute.International Monetary Fund.African Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910956116103321Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt4372471UNINA