05261oam 22011414 450 991095502100332120251116183932.0978661382740197814623255731462325572978145275719314527571949781283514958128351495897814519102231451910223(CKB)3360000000443668(EBL)1608469(SSID)ssj0000948699(PQKBManifestationID)11602671(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000948699(PQKBWorkID)10950171(PQKB)11651066(OCoLC)535146981(IMF)WPIEE2007005(MiAaPQ)EBC1608469(IMF)WPIEA2007005WPIEA2007005(EXLCZ)99336000000044366820020129d2007 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrYemen : Exchange Rate Policy in the Face of Dwindling Oil Exports /Todd Schneider, Nabil Ben Ltaifa, Faisal Ahmed, Saade Chami1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2007.1 online resource (24 p.)IMF Working Papers"January 2007."9781451865691 1451865694 Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-22).Contents; I. Introduction; II. Background and Macroeconomic Outlook; Figures; 1. Exchange Rate and Inflation Developments, January 1998-June 2006; III. Estimating the Equilibrium Exchange Rate; 2. Yemen and GCC Countries, Real Effective Exchange Rates, January 1995-June 2006; IV. Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Yemen; A. Data and variables; 3. Real Effective Exchange Rate and its Key Determinants; B. Methodology; C. Econometric Results; Tables; 1. Selected Results of the VEC; D. Equilibrium (long-run) Relationship; E. Impact of Declining Oil Production on the REERF. Impact on the Nominal Exchange Rate: An Illustrative ExerciseV. Exchange Rate Regime Options; 4. Yemeni Rial-Daily Exchange Rate Versus U.S. Dollar, January-August 2006; VI. Conclusions; Appendix; 1. Variables; ReferencesThis paper investigates the likely implications of declining oil production on Yemen's equilibrium exchange rate, and discusses policy options to ensure a smooth transition to a nonoil economy. The empirical results suggest that, as oil production and foreign exchange earnings fall, the Yemeni rial will have to adjust downward in real effective terms to keep pace with the equilibrium exchange rate. In light of strong pass-through from exchange rate depreciation to domestic inflation, this could entail a substantial depreciation in nominal terms. Given the nature of the adjustment, a floating exchange rate regime appears to be the best option, if supported by appropriate macroeconomic policies. However, given public fixation on a exchange rate stability, a softly managed float would be a better option for Yemen whereby the central bank may have to lead the market toward the equilibrium exchange rate.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2007/005Exchange rate policy in the face of dwindling oil exportsForeign exchange ratesYemen (Republic)Petroleum industry and tradeYemen (Republic)ExportsYemen (Republic)Central Banks and Their PoliciesimfCurrencyimfExchange rate arrangementsimfExchange ratesimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign exchangeimfIndustries: EnergyimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfMonetary PolicyimfOil productionimfPetroleum industry and tradeimfPetroleum, oil & gas industriesimfProductionimfReal effective exchange ratesimfReal exchange ratesimfYemen, Republic ofimfForeign exchange ratesPetroleum industry and tradeExportsCentral Banks and Their PoliciesCurrencyExchange rate arrangementsExchange ratesForeign ExchangeForeign exchangeIndustries: EnergyMacroeconomics: ProductionMonetary PolicyOil productionPetroleum industry and tradePetroleum, oil & gas industriesProductionReal effective exchange ratesReal exchange rates339.4339.43Schneider Todd1815863Ahmed Faisal1816643Ben Ltaifa Nabil1815861Chami Saade1815862International Monetary Fund.Middle East and Central Asia Department.DcWaIMFBOOK9910955021003321Yemen4372895UNINA