06312nam 2200733Ia 450 991095363980332120251116141315.09786610211869978128021186712802118659780309557306030955730597805850019440585001944(CKB)111000211177052(EBL)3377179(SSID)ssj0000177387(PQKBManifestationID)12055483(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000177387(PQKBWorkID)10210461(PQKB)11490061(MiAaPQ)EBC3377179(Perlego)4735370(BIP)787541(EXLCZ)9911100021117705219910614d1991 uy 0engurcnu||||||||txtrdacontentcrdamediacrrdacarrierReview and recommendations /Constance F. Citro and Eric A. Hanushek, editors ; Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs, Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences Education, National Research Council1st ed.Washington, D.C. National Academy Press19911 online resource (346 pages) illustrationsImproving information for social policy decisions: the uses of microsimulation modeling ;19780309045414 030904541X Includes bibliographical references and index.Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Summary; IMPROVING THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS: INVESTMENT PRIORITIES; Validation; Better Data; THE ROLE OF MICROSIMULATION AS A POLICY ANALYSIS TOOL; Databases; Model Design and Development; Computing Technology; Validation; Documentation and Archiving; The Structure of the Community; The Use of Microsimulation for Basic Research; RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING POLICY ANALYSIS; Data; Validation; RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MICROSIMULATION MODELS; Databases; Model Design and Development; Computing TechnologyHealth Care and Retirement Policy Modeling Validation; Documentation and Archiving; Structure of the Microsimulation Modeling Community; 1 Introduction; A SCENE IN WASHINGTON, D.C.; THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS; THE PANEL STUDY; Part I Information for Social Welfare Policy: Toward A Second Revolution; 2 The Search for Useful Information; THE FIRST INFORMATION REVOLUTION; POLICY ANALYSIS: BETWEEN SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND POLITICS; A CASE STUDY OF POLICY ANALYSIS: THE FAMILY SUPPORT ACT OF 1988; Provisions That Could Be Estimated With Microsimulation ModelsProvisions That Could Not Be Estimated With Microsimulation Models Problems in the Estimation Process; 3 Improving the Tools and Uses of Policy Analysis; A STRATEGY FOR INVESTMENT; DATA QUALITY AND AVAILABILITY; Investment in Data Production; Coordination of Data Production; Broadened Data Collection; Linking Survey and Administrative Data; Adding Value to Existing Data; VALIDATION; The Difficulty of Validation; Kinds of Model Validation; External Validation; Internal Validation; Investment in Model Validation; DOCUMENTATION AND COMMUNICATION OF THE RESULTS OF POLICY ANALYSISDocumentation and Archiving as Aids to Validation Communicating Validation Results to Decision Makers; Appendix Models, Uncertainty, and Confidence Intervals; MODELS; UNCERTAINTY OF AN ESTIMATE; CONDITIONAL VERSUS UNCONDITIONAL CONFIDENCE INTERVALS; AN ILLUSTRATIVE DIAGRAM; Part II The Role of Microsimulation as a Policy Analysis Tool; 4 Microsimulation Models: Then and Now; BASIC ELEMENTS OF MICROSIMULATION MODELS; DEVELOPMENT OF MICROSIMULATION MODELING FOR POLICY ANALYSIS; Origins: 1950's to mid-1960's; Development of Static Models: Late 1960's to Early 1980'sDevelopment of Dynamic Models: 1970's to Early 1980's Retreats and Advances: The 1980's; ROLE AND CURRENT STATUS OF MICROSIMULATION: FINDINGS; Overall Value; A Range of Policy Analysis Tools; Analytical Costs; Model Uncertainty; Data Adequacy; Research Knowledge; Computer Technologies; Microsimulation Modeling Community; Future Directions; 5 Databases for Microsimulation; DATA QUALITY: THE MARCH CPS; Survey-Based Problems; Coverage; Response Rates; Sampling Error; Missing Detail; Data Omissions; STRATEGIES FOR TREATING MISSING AND ERRONEOUS DATA; Disaggregation; Imputation for Item NonresponseImputation for Items Not CollectedThis book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models--large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to welfare to taxes. Volume 1 is designed to guide future investment in modeling and analysis capability on the part of government agencies that produce policy estimates. It will inform congressional and executive decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of models and estimates and will interest social scientists in the potential of microsimulation techniques for basic and applied research as well as policy uses. The book concludes that a "second revolution" is needed to improve the quality of microsimulation and other policy analysis models and the estimates they produce, with a special emphasis on systematic validation of models and communication of validation results to decision makers.Public welfareDecision makingSocial policyDecision makingSocial policySimulation methodsDecision makingMathematical modelsPublic welfareDecision making.Social policyDecision making.Social policySimulation methods.Decision makingMathematical models.361.6/1Citro Constance F(Constance Forbes),1942-1804879Hanushek Eric A(Eric Alan),1943-121192MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910953639803321Review and recommendations4353145UNINA