06683oam 22015494 450 991095341830332120250426110703.09781475516913147551691697814755582411475558244(CKB)2550000000107544(EBL)1606796(SSID)ssj0000953126(PQKBManifestationID)11551737(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000953126(PQKBWorkID)10910203(PQKB)10773241(Au-PeEL)EBL1606796(CaPaEBR)ebr10579630(OCoLC)795743660(IMF)WPIEE2012153(IMF)WPIEA2012153(MiAaPQ)EBC1606796WPIEA2012153(EXLCZ)99255000000010754420020129d2012 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrFiscal Foresight and Information Flows /Todd Walker, Eric Leeper, Susan Yang1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (66 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.9781475573329 1475573324 9781475504354 1475504357 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Analytical Example; A. The Econometrics of Foresight; Figures; 1. Responses of Capital to Tax Increase; B. Generalizations; III. Quantitative Importance of Foresight; A. Modeling Information Flows; B. Model Descriptions; C. Information Flows and Estimation Bias; Tables; 1. Information Flow Processes; IV. Solving the Problem; 2. Output Multipliers for a Labor Tax Change; A. An Organizing Principle; B. Lines of Attack; 1. The Narrative Approach; 2. Conditioning on Asset Prices; 3. Direct Estimation of DSGE Model; V. Concluding Remarks; AppendicesI. Simulations Details II. Testing Economic Theory; III. Municipal Bonds and Fiscal Foresight: Additional Results; IV. Assessing the Ex-Ante Approach; ReferencesNews - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non-fundamental equilibria. Econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes; biases are quantitatively important when two canonical theoretical models are taken as data generating processes. Both the nature of equilibria and the inferences about the effects of anticipated tax changes hinge critically on hypothesized information flows. Different methods for extracting or hypothesizing the information flows are discussed and shown to be alternative techniques for resolving a non-uniqueness problem endemic to moving average representations.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/153TaxationFiscal policyInformation theory in economicsBondsimfDiffusion ProcessesimfDynamic Quantile RegressionsimfDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsimfEconometric analysisimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfEconometricsimfExpenditureimfExpenditures, PublicimfFinancial institutionsimfFiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: GeneralimfFiscal PolicyimfFiscal policyimfGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfIncome taximfInvestment & securitiesimfInvestments: BondsimfLabor taxesimfLaw and legislationimfMacroeconomicsimfMunicipal bondsimfNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: GeneralimfPersonal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and SubsidiesimfPublic finance & taxationimfPublic FinanceimfTax LawimfTax lawimfTax policyimfTaxation & duties lawimfTaxationimfTaxesimfTime-Series ModelsimfVector autoregressionimfWelfare & benefit systemsimfUnited StatesimfTaxation.Fiscal policy.Information theory in economics.BondsDiffusion ProcessesDynamic Quantile RegressionsDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsEconometric analysisEconometrics & economic statisticsEconometricsExpenditureExpenditures, PublicFinancial institutionsFiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: GeneralFiscal PolicyFiscal policyGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)Income taxInvestment & securitiesInvestments: BondsLabor taxesLaw and legislationMacroeconomicsMunicipal bondsNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: GeneralPersonal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and SubsidiesPublic finance & taxationPublic FinanceTax LawTax lawTax policyTaxation & duties lawTaxationTaxesTime-Series ModelsVector autoregressionWelfare & benefit systems332.1Walker Todd1815590Leeper Eric1815591Yang Susan1815592National Bureau of Economic Research.DcWaIMFBOOK9910953418303321Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows4371058UNINA