03191nam 22006855 450 991084230000332120250808093217.03-031-48766-410.1007/978-3-031-48766-8(CKB)30597459500041(MiAaPQ)EBC31200901(Au-PeEL)EBL31200901(DE-He213)978-3-031-48766-8(EXLCZ)993059745950004120240228d2024 u| 0engur|||||||||||txtrdacontentcrdamediacrrdacarrierClear Thinking Structured Analytic Techniques and Strategic Foresight Analysis for Decisionmakers /by Randolph H. Pherson, Ole Donner, Oliver Gnad1st ed. 2024.Cham :Springer Nature Switzerland :Imprint: Springer,2024.1 online resource (259 pages)Professional Practice in Governance and Public Organizations,2731-97843-031-48765-6 Chapter 1. Setting the Stage -- Chapter 2. Understanding How We Think: System I and System 2 -- Chapter 3. Conceptualizing Your Topic -- Chapter 4. Blackout In Berlin! -- Chapter 5. Terror in Stockholm -- Chapter 6. Conflict or Cooperation in the Arctic? -- Chapter 7. Optimizing the Impact of Your Product -- Chapter 8. Outlook.This book enables analysts in government and the private sector as well as policy advisors and decision makers to assess global risks and opportunities systematically, make well-founded and informed decisions, and anticipate the unanticipated. The authors illuminate the basics of intuitive and analytical thinking and how structured techniques can mitigate the impact of cognitive biases, misapplied heuristics, and intuitive traps. Three case studies illustrate how to apply over 30 Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) with step-by-step instructions. The final chapter focuses on how to optimize the impact of your analytic product, be it a paper, briefing, or digital display.Professional Practice in Governance and Public Organizations,2731-9784Security, InternationalPolitical scienceCognitive psychologyPolitical leadershipWorld politicsInternational Security StudiesGovernance and GovernmentCognitive PsychologyPolitical LeadershipPolitical HistorySecurity, International.Political science.Cognitive psychology.Political leadership.World politics.International Security Studies.Governance and Government.Cognitive Psychology.Political Leadership.Political History.153.83Pherson Randolph H.1732020Donner OleGnad OliverMiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910842300003321Clear Thinking4145622UNINA