05414nam 22006854a 450 991083106780332120230617035700.01-280-27761-097866102776120-470-23694-90-471-74473-50-471-74472-7(CKB)1000000000239337(EBL)239401(OCoLC)304072303(SSID)ssj0000129604(PQKBManifestationID)11134866(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000129604(PQKBWorkID)10080293(PQKB)11489424(MiAaPQ)EBC239401(EXLCZ)99100000000023933720050325d2005 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrContemporary Bayesian econometrics and statistics[electronic resource] /John GewekeHoboken, N.J. John Wileyc20051 online resource (322 p.)Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics ;v.537Description based upon print version of record.0-471-67932-1 Includes bibliographical references and index.Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics; Contents; Preface; 1. Introduction; 1.1 Two Examples; 1.1.1 Public School Class Sizes; 1.1.2 Value at Risk; 1.2 Observables, Unobservables, and Objects of Interest; 1.3 Conditioning and Updating; 1.4 Simulators; 1.5 Modeling; 1.6 Decisionmaking; 2. Elements of Bayesian Inference; 2.1 Basics; 2.2 Sufficiency, Ancillarity, and Nuisance Parameters; 2.2.1 Sufficiency; 2.2.2 Ancillarity; 2.2.3 Nuisance Parameters; 2.3 Conjugate Prior Distributions; 2.4 Bayesian Decision Theory and Point Estimation; 2.5 Credible Sets; 2.6 Model Comparison2.6.1 Marginal Likelihoods2.6.2 Predictive Densities; 3. Topics in Bayesian Inference; 3.1 Hierarchical Priors and Latent Variables; 3.2 Improper Prior Distributions; 3.3 Prior Robustness and the Density Ratio Class; 3.4 Asymptotic Analysis; 3.5 The Likelihood Principle; 4. Posterior Simulation; 4.1 Direct Sampling; 4.2 Acceptance and Importance Sampling; 4.2.1 Acceptance Sampling; 4.2.2 Importance Sampling; 4.3 Markov Chain Monte Carlo; 4.3.1 The Gibbs Sampler; 4.3.2 The Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm; 4.4 Variance Reduction; 4.4.1 Concentrated Expectations; 4.4.2 Antithetic Sampling4.5 Some Continuous State Space Markov Chain Theory4.5.1 Convergence of the Gibbs Sampler; 4.5.2 Convergence of the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm; 4.6 Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods; 4.6.1 Transition Mixtures; 4.6.2 Metropolis within Gibbs; 4.7 Numerical Accuracy and Convergence in Markov Chain Monte Carlo; 5. Linear Models; 5.1 BACC and the Normal Linear Regression Model; 5.2 Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Models; 5.3 Linear Constraints in the Linear Model; 5.3.1 Linear Inequality Constraints5.3.2 Conjectured Linear Restrictions, Linear Inequality Constraints, and Covariate Selection5.4 Nonlinear Regression; 5.4.1 Nonlinear Regression with Smoothness Priors; 5.4.2 Nonlinear Regression with Basis Functions; 6. Modeling with Latent Variables; 6.1 Censored Normal Linear Models; 6.2 Probit Linear Models; 6.3 The Independent Finite State Model; 6.4 Modeling with Mixtures of Normal Distributions; 6.4.1 The Independent Student-t Linear Model; 6.4.2 Normal Mixture Linear Models; 6.4.3 Generalizing the Observable Outcomes; 7. Modeling for Time Series7.1 Linear Models with Serial Correlation7.2 The First-Order Markov Finite State Model; 7.2.1 Inference in the Nonstationary Model; 7.2.2 Inference in the Stationary Model; 7.3 Markov Normal Mixture Linear Model; 8. Bayesian Investigation; 8.1 Implementing Simulation Methods; 8.1.1 Density Ratio Tests; 8.1.2 Joint Distribution Tests; 8.2 Formal Model Comparison; 8.2.1 Bayes Factors for Modeling with Common Likelihoods; 8.2.2 Marginal Likelihood Approximation Using Importance Sampling; 8.2.3 Marginal Likelihood Approximation Using Gibbs Sampling8.2.4 Density Ratio Marginal Likelihood ApproximationTools to improve decision making in an imperfect worldThis publication provides readers with a thorough understanding of Bayesian analysis that is grounded in the theory of inference and optimal decision making. Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics provides readers with state-of-the-art simulation methods and models that are used to solve complex real-world problems. Armed with a strong foundation in both theory and practical problem-solving tools, readers discover how to optimize decision making when faced with problems that involve limited or imperfect data.The bWiley Series in Probability and StatisticsEconometricsBayesian statistical decision theoryDecision makingMathematical modelsEconometrics.Bayesian statistical decision theory.Decision makingMathematical models.330.015195330.01519542330/.01/519542Geweke John121506MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910831067803321Contemporary Bayesian econometrics and statistics227129UNINA