05775oam 22010214 450 991082708250332120240402050458.01-4623-2249-21-4527-6421-297866128414771-282-84147-51-4518-7054-X(CKB)3170000000055096(EBL)1607999(SSID)ssj0001477815(PQKBManifestationID)11833157(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477815(PQKBWorkID)11453522(PQKB)10232154(OCoLC)762054997(IMF)WPIEE2008196(MiAaPQ)EBC1607999(EXLCZ)99317000000005509620020129d2008 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrThe Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria /Jemma Dridi, Maher Hasan1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2008.1 online resource (32 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/08/196Description based upon print version of record.1-4519-1507-1 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Brief Review of the Literature; III. Exchange System in Syria; A. Exchange System Developments; Figures; 1. Developments of the Official and Free Market Exchange Rates, 1951-2005; B. Which Exchange Rate Should be Used to Measure the Real Effective Exchange Rate?; C. Developments of the Free Market and Weighted Rates; IV. The Role of Oil-Related Income; A. The Concept of Oil-Related Income; 2. Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates, 1960-2005; B. The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Balance of Payments and the Budget; Boxes; 1. Oil-Related Income in Syria3. Share of Oil-Related Revenues in Total Foreign Exchange Earnings, and Balance of Payments Developments, 1960-2005V. Theoretical Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and Estimation Results; A. Theoretical Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate; 4. Share of the Oil-Related Revenues in Total Foreign Exchange Earnings and Fiscal Developments, 1960-2005; B. Estimation Results and Data Issues; 5. Real Effective Exchange Rate and its Theoretical Determinants, 1960-2005; Tables; 1. Unit Root Tests; 2. Multivariate Cointegration Test Results3. Long-Term Coefficient From Vector Error Correction Model Estimates Using the Free Market Rate6. Government Expenditure and Imports, 1961-2005; 7. REERF, Smoothed and Unsmoothed ERER, and Misalignment, 1960-2005; VI. Conclusions; 8. External Sustainability Assessment; References; Appendixes; I. Exchange System Developments in Syria; II. Detailed ECM ResultsThis paper examines the impact of oil-related income, among other fundamentals, on the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (ERER) in Syria. After reviewing the evolution of the Syrian multiple exchange rate regime since 1960 and assessing alternative measures for the exchange rate, the paper analyzes the impact of oil-related income on the ERER in the context of a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model. The analysis concludes that ERER appreciates with higher oil-related income, productivity and net foreign assets, but, at odds with the conventional wisdom, depreciates with higher government expenditures given that an increase in expenditures usually translates into higher imports and weaker current account position. In light of the projected real shocks associated with the depletion of oil and the change in other fundamentals in the context of the ongoing transition to a market economy, a more flexible regime would serve Syria better in the future.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2008/196Petroleum industry and tradeSyriaEconometric modelsNational incomeSyriaEconometric modelsForeign exchange ratesSyriaEconometric modelsInvestments: EnergyimfForeign ExchangeimfMacroeconomicsimfEnergy: GeneralimfPersonal Income, Wealth, and Their DistributionsimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfInvestment & securitiesimfExchange ratesimfOilimfReal exchange ratesimfReal effective exchange ratesimfPersonal incomeimfPetroleum industry and tradeimfIncomeimfSyrian Arab RepublicimfPetroleum industry and tradeEconometric models.National incomeEconometric models.Foreign exchange ratesEconometric models.Investments: EnergyForeign ExchangeMacroeconomicsEnergy: GeneralPersonal Income, Wealth, and Their DistributionsCurrencyForeign exchangeInvestment & securitiesExchange ratesOilReal exchange ratesReal effective exchange ratesPersonal incomePetroleum industry and tradeIncome338.27282Dridi Jemma1654468Hasan Maher1654469DcWaIMFBOOK9910827082503321The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria4006321UNINA