06277oam 22014294 450 991082568380332120200520144314.01-4623-4870-X1-4527-6721-11-283-51370-697866138261521-4519-1772-4(CKB)3360000000443607(EBL)1608822(SSID)ssj0000943309(PQKBManifestationID)11479832(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943309(PQKBWorkID)10994228(PQKB)11374517(OCoLC)469983835(IMF)WPIEE2009203(IMF)WPIEA2009203(MiAaPQ)EBC1608822(EXLCZ)99336000000044360720020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrThe Drivers of Housing Cycles in Spain /Pau Rabanal, Oriol Aspachs-Bracons1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (63 p.)IMF Working Papers"September 2009."1-4518-7350-6 Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; Figures; Tables; I. Introduction; 1. Residential Investment (y-o-y real growth rate); 2. House Price Indices (y-o-y percent growth rate); 3. 3-Month T-Bill Rates in Spain and in the EMU; 4. Number of Households and Population. Annual Growth Rates; II. The Model; A. Households; B. Producers; B.1 Final Goods Producers; B.2 Intermediate Goods Producers; C. Closing the Model; C.1 Market Clearing Conditions; C.2 Monetary Policy Rule; III. Bayesian Estimation; A. Data; B. Priors and Posteriors; 1. Calibrated parameters2a. Prior and Posterior Disributions5. Priors (black solid line) and Posteriors (red dashed line); 6. Priors (black solid line) and Posteriors (red dashed line); 2b. Prior and Posterior Disributions; C. Implications of the Model: Posterior Second Moments and Impulse Responses; C.1 Second Moments; 3a. Second Moments in Spain; 3b. Second Moments in the rest of EMU; 4. Variance Decomposition (in percent); C.2 Model Simulation; 7. Model Simulation with Smoothed Shocks. Percent Contribution of Each Shock to Overall Volatility; C.3 Impulse Responses8. Posterior Impulse Responses (mean and 95% C.I.) to a Technology Shock in the Housing Sector9. Posterior Impulse Responses (mean and 95% C.I.) to a Preference Shock in the Housing Sector; 10. Posterior Impulse Responses (mean and 95% C.I.) to a Monetary Policy Shock in the Euro Area; IV. Robustness: The Role of Financial Frictions and Labor Market Rigidities; 5. Model Comparison; V. Conclusions; References; FootnotesSince Spain joined the EMU, two main important factors behind the housing boom appear to be the decrease of nominal interest rates and demographic factors. In this paper we estimate a New Keynesian model of a currency area, using data for Spain and the rest of the EMU to study the importance of those factors. We also examine the role of different rigidities and find that labor market frictions are crucial to explain main features of the data. On the other hand, financial frictions that impose a collateral constraint on borrowing do not appear to be relevant.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/203Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009Monetary policyRiskCapacityimfCapitalimfConsumptionimfEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation AnalysisimfEconomicsimfFinancial Markets and the MacroeconomyimfHousing pricesimfHousing Supply and MarketsimfHousingimfIncome economicsimfInfrastructureimfIntangible CapitalimfInternational ConflictsimfInvestmentimfInvestments: GeneralimfLabor economicsimfLabor Economics: GeneralimfLaborimfLabourimfMacroeconomicsimfMacroeconomics: ConsumptionimfMonetary PolicyimfNational accountsimfNegotiationsimfPricesimfProperty & real estateimfReal EstateimfReturn on investmentimfSanctionsimfSaving and investmentimfSavingimfWealthimfSpainimfGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.Monetary policy.Risk.CapacityCapitalConsumptionEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation AnalysisEconomicsFinancial Markets and the MacroeconomyHousing pricesHousing Supply and MarketsHousingIncome economicsInfrastructureIntangible CapitalInternational ConflictsInvestmentInvestments: GeneralLabor economicsLabor Economics: GeneralLaborLabourMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics: ConsumptionMonetary PolicyNational accountsNegotiationsPricesProperty & real estateReal EstateReturn on investmentSanctionsSaving and investmentSavingWealth363.5Rabanal Pau1627816Aspachs-Bracons Oriol1769784International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910825683803321The Drivers of Housing Cycles in Spain4242590UNINA