04201nam 2200649Ia 450 991082391580332120230802010301.00-8330-7649-3(CKB)2550000001039455(EBL)1365142(SSID)ssj0000860063(PQKBManifestationID)11479289(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000860063(PQKBWorkID)10896508(PQKB)10253424(Au-PeEL)EBL1365142(CaPaEBR)ebr10678770(OCoLC)811610557(MiAaPQ)EBC1365142(EXLCZ)99255000000103945520120921d2012 uy 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrCharacterizing the North Korean nuclear missile threat[electronic resource] /Markus SchillerSanta Monica, Calif. RAND20121 online resource (137 p.)Technical report ;TR-1268-TSF"Supported by the Stanton Foundation."0-8330-7621-3 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; CHAPTER ONE: Introduction; CHAPTER TWO: Missile Basics; Characteristics; Missile Components; Accuracy and Reliability; Accuracy; Reliability; Basic Facts; Missile Size; Missile Weapon System; Development and Production; Testing; Other Countries' Missile Program Experiences; CHAPTER THREE: The Problem; Known Inconsistencies; Research Question; CHAPTER FOUR: Defining Five Hypotheses About the North Korean Program; The "Reverse Engineering" Hypothesis; Hypothesis; ImplicationsThe "Buy" Hypothesis Hypothesis; Implications; Hypotheses Between the Two Extremes; The "Bluff" Hypothesis; The "Licensed Production" Hypothesis; The "Mixed Sources" Hypothesis; CHAPTER FIVE: What We Know; Missile; Scud B; Scud C; Nodong; Scud D; Taepodong I; Taepodong II/Unha-2/Unha-3; KN-02; Musudan; KN-08; Program; Tests and Training; Personnel; Infrastructure and Facilities; Development and Production; Numbers and Deployments; Exports; Imports; Country; General Aspects; Classification of the Missile Program; Financial, Economic, and Industrial Situation; Other Industrial ProgramsLinks to Other Countries Other Aspects; CHAPTER SIX: Consistency Check; Scoring System; Evaluation Matrix; Condensed Discussion of the Matrices; Missile; Program; Country; Other Aspects; Results; CHAPTER SEVEN: Discussion; General Considerations; Reverse Engineering; Russian Support; Program Intent; Taepodong I and II; Missile Transfers; The North Korean Threat Situation; The Available Missile Arsenal; Nuclear Warheads?; Implications; Defense Issues; Policy Issues; CHAPTER EIGHT: What We Would Like to Know; CHAPTER NINE: Conclusions; Findings; Answers to the Research Questions; ImplicationsRecommendations APPENDIX: Details on What We Know; BibliographyThe security community generally believes that North Korea has a relatively sophisticated guided ballistic missile program. This report questions this view and seeks to better characterize the North Korean missile threat. The author compares the available data on the North Korean missile program against five hypotheses about the program's origins, sophistication, and scale, highlighting inconsistencies.Technical report (Rand Corporation) ;TR-1268-TSF.Nuclear weaponsKorea (North)Ballistic missilesKorea (North)Strategic cultureKorea (North)Korea (North)Strategic aspectsKorea (North)Military policyKorea (North)Foreign relationsNuclear weaponsBallistic missilesStrategic culture358.1/7095193Schiller Markus1979-1648947MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910823915803321Characterizing the North Korean nuclear missile threat3997405UNINA