06041oam 22011774 450 991082321820332120200520144314.01-4755-4839-71-4755-7660-9(CKB)2550000000107534(EBL)1606771(SSID)ssj0000941831(PQKBManifestationID)11967092(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000941831(PQKBWorkID)10963950(PQKB)11210153(Au-PeEL)EBL1606771(CaPaEBR)ebr10579620(OCoLC)870245004(IMF)WPIEE2012145(IMF)WPIEA2012145(MiAaPQ)EBC1606771(EXLCZ)99255000000010753420020129d2012 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrIntra-Regional Spillovers in South America : Is Brazil Systemic After All? /Sebastian Sosa, Gustavo Adler1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (23 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.1-4755-2412-9 1-4755-0408-X Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Latin America's Large Neighbors, 2010; Tables; 1. Business Cycle Comovement with Large Neighbors, 1990:Q1-2011:Q4; II. Export Linkages with Brazil; 2. South America: Exports of Goods by Region, 1990-2010; 3. South America: Intra-Regional Exports of Goods 1990-2010; III. How Important are Spillovers from Brazil? A VAR Approach; 4. South America's Exports: Exposure to Brazil, 1990-2010; 5. Export Performance in Brazil's Neighbors, 1990-2011; A. Impact of Brazil-Idiosyncratic Shocks; 6. Output Response to a Shock to Brazil's OutputB. Amplification of Global Shocks2. Cumulative Impact on Output; 7. Output Response to a VIX Shock: Brazil's Amplifying Role; C. Variance Decomposition Analysis; IV. The Impact of Brazilian Real Depreciations; 8. Variance Decomposition of Output; 9. Real Exchange Rate Depreciation in Brazil: Export Performance in Southern Cone Neighbors; V. Conclusions; 10. Responses to a Shock to Brazil's Real Exchange Rate; Appendix Figures; 1. South America: Exports of Goods by Region, 1990-2010 (Percent of Total Exports); 2. South America: Exports of Goods by Region, 1990-2010 (Percent of GDP)3. Output Response to a Shock to Global Output4. Output Response to a Shock to the VIX; 5. Output Response to a Shock to Commodity Prices; 6. Output Response to a Shock to Argentina's Output; 7. Real Exchange Rate Depreciation in Brazil: Export Performance in Southern Cone Neighbors; ReferencesShocks stemming from Brazil - the large neighbor in South America - have historically been a source of concern for policy-makers in other countries of the region. This paper studies the importance of Brazil’s influence on its neighboring economies, documenting trade linkages over the last two decades and quantifying spillover effects in a Vector Auto Regression setting. While trade linkages with Brazil are significant for the Southern Cone countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay), they are very weak for others. Consistent with this evidence, econometric results show that, while the Southern Cone economies (especially Mercosur’s members) are vulnerable to output shocks from Brazil, the rest of South America is not. Spillovers can take two different forms: the transmission of Brazil-specific shocks and the amplification of global shocks—through their impact on Brazil’s output. Finally, we also find suggestive evidence that depreciations of Brazil’s currency may not have significant impact on output of its key trading partners.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/145Investments, ForeignBrazilCapacityimfCapitalimfCurrencyimfDepreciationimfExports and ImportsimfExportsimfExternalitiesimfFinancial sector policy and analysisimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign exchangeimfIntangible CapitalimfInternational economicsimfInternational financeimfInternational tradeimfInvestmentimfInvestments: GeneralimfMacroeconomicsimfNational accountsimfReal effective exchange ratesimfReal exchange ratesimfSaving and investmentimfSpilloversimfTrade: GeneralimfBrazilForeign economic relationsBrazilimfInvestments, ForeignCapacityCapitalCurrencyDepreciationExports and ImportsExportsExternalitiesFinancial sector policy and analysisForeign ExchangeForeign exchangeIntangible CapitalInternational economicsInternational financeInternational tradeInvestmentInvestments: GeneralMacroeconomicsNational accountsReal effective exchange ratesReal exchange ratesSaving and investmentSpilloversTrade: General382.63Sosa Sebastian1643706Adler Gustavo1614878DcWaIMFBOOK9910823218203321Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America4080855UNINA