03846nam 2200697 a 450 991082180420332120200520144314.01-4623-6091-21-4527-5217-61-283-51819-81-4519-0805-99786613830647(CKB)3360000000443988(EBL)3012546(SSID)ssj0000960516(PQKBManifestationID)11536108(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000960516(PQKBWorkID)10949504(PQKB)10500929(OCoLC)535146951(IMF)WPIEE2006009(MiAaPQ)EBC3012546(EXLCZ)99336000000044398820090811d2006 uy 0engurcnu||||||||txtccrThe global impact of demographic change /prepared by Nicoletta Batini, Tim Callen, and Warwick McKibbin1st ed.[Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund, Research Dept.20061 online resource (36 p.)IMF working paper ;WP/06/9"January 2006.""McKibbin's research in this paper was supported by the Economic and Social Research Institute of the Japanese Cabinet Office International Collaborations Project through the Brookings Institution and was prepared as background material for the September 2004 World Economic Outlook."--Title page.1-4518-6269-5 Includes bibliographical references (p. 31-34).""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. SOME BACKGROUND ON GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE""; ""III. MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE""; ""IV. HOW WILL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AFFECT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?""; ""V. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS""; ""VI. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS""; ""Appendix: The Analytical Approach""; ""References""The world is in the midst of a major demographic transition. This paper examines the implications of such transition over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, other industrial countries, and the developing regions of the world using a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium four-country model containing demographics calibrated to the "medium variant" of the United Nations population projections. We find that population aging in industrial countries will reduce aggregate growth in these regions over time, but should boost growth in developing countries over the next 20-30 years, as the relative size of their workingage populations increases. Demographic change will also affect saving, investment, and capital flows, implying changes in global trade balances and asset prices. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about future productivity growth and country external risk for the developing country region.IMF working paper ;WP/06/9.DemographyEconometric modelsPopulationEconomic aspectsEconometric modelsAgingEconomic aspectsEconometric modelsSaving and investmentEconometric modelsCapital movementsEconometric modelsDemographyEconometric models.PopulationEconomic aspectsEconometric models.AgingEconomic aspectsEconometric models.Saving and investmentEconometric models.Capital movementsEconometric models.Batini Nicoletta1655456McKibbin Warwick J.1957-148594Callen Tim1630689MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910821804203321The global impact of demographic change4193696UNINA