05043nam 2200697 450 991082125840332120230607222230.00-203-95346-01-136-71099-X1-136-71097-3(CKB)1000000000559072(EBL)3061129(OCoLC)922959163(SSID)ssj0000702694(PQKBManifestationID)12278725(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000702694(PQKBWorkID)10687367(PQKB)11107619(MiAaPQ)EBC3061129(Au-PeEL)EBL3061129(CaPaEBR)ebr10786390(CaONFJC)MIL530990(EXLCZ)99100000000055907220011129d2002 uy| 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrAnthropic bias observation selection effects in science and philosophy /Nick BostromNew York :Routledge,2002.1 online resource (241 p.)Studies in philosophyDescription based upon print version of record.0-415-88394-6 0-415-93858-9 Includes bibliographical references (pages 207-217) and index.""Cover""; ""Title""; ""Copyright""; ""Dedication""; ""Contents""; ""ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS""; ""PREFACE""; ""Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION""; ""Observation selection effects""; ""A brief history of anthropic reasoning""; ""Synopsis of this book""; ""Chapter 2 FINE-TUNING IN COSMOLOGY""; ""Does fine-tuning need explaining?""; ""No “Inverse Gambler�s Fallacy�""; ""Roger White and Phil Dowe�s analysis""; ""Surprising vs. unsurprising improbable events""; ""Modeling observation selection effects: the angel parable""; ""Preliminary conclusions""; ""Chapter 3 ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLES: THE MOTLEY FAMILY""""The anthropic principle as expressing an observation selection effect""""Anthropic hodgepodge""; ""Freak observers and why earlier formulations are inadequate""; ""The Self-Sampling Assumption""; ""Chapter 4 THOUGHT EXPERIMENTS SUPPORTING THE SELF-SAMPLING ASSUMPTION""; ""The Dungeon gedanken""; ""Two thought experiments by John Leslie""; ""The Incubator gedanken""; ""The reference class problem""; ""Chapter 5 THE SELF-SAMPLING ASSUMPTION IN SCIENCE""; ""SSA in cosmology""; ""SSA in thermodynamics""; ""SSA in evolutionary biology""; ""SSA in traffic analysis""; ""SSA in quantum physics""""Summary of the case for SSA""""Chapter 6 THE DOOMSDAY ARGUMENT""; ""Background""; ""Doomsayer Gott""; ""The incorrectness of Gott�s argument""; ""Doomsayer Leslie""; ""The premisses of DA, and the Old evidence problem""; ""Leslie�s views on the reference class problem""; ""Alternative conclusions of DA""; ""Chapter 7 INVALID OBJECTIONS AGAINST THE DOOMSDAY ARGUMENT""; ""Doesn�t the Doomsday argument fail to “target the truth�?""; ""The “baby-paradox�""; ""Isn�t a sample size of one too small?""; ""Couldn�t a Cro-Magnon man have used the Doomsday argument?""""We can make the effect go away simply by considering a larger hypothesis space""""Aren�t we necessarily alive now?""; ""Sliding reference of “soon� and “late�?""; ""How could I have been a 16th century human?""; ""Doesn�t your theory presuppose that what happens in causally disconnected regions affects what happens here?""; ""But we know so much more about ourselves than our birth ranks!""; ""The Self-Indication Assumption�Is there safety in numbers?""; ""Chapter 8 OBSERVER-RELATIVE CHANCES IN ANTHROPIC REASONING?""; ""Leslie�s argument, and why it fails""""Observer-relative chances: another go""""Discussion: indexical facts�no conflict with physicalism""; ""In conclusion""; ""Appendix: the no-betting results""; ""Chapter 9 PARADOXES OF THE SELF-SAMPLING ASSUMPTION""; ""The Adam & Eve experiments""; ""Analysis of Lazy Adam: predictions and counterfactuals""; ""The UN++ gedanken: reasons and abilities""; ""Quantum Joe: SSA and the Principal Principle""; ""Upshot""; ""Appendix: The Meta-Newcomb problem""; ""Chapter 10 OBSERVATION SELECTION THEORY: A METHODOLOGY FOR ANTHROPIC REASONING""; ""Building blocks, theory constraints and desiderata""""The outline of a solution""Studies in philosophy (New York, N.Y.)MethodologyAnthropic principleSelectivity (Psychology)Observation (Scientific method)Methodology.Anthropic principle.Selectivity (Psychology)Observation (Scientific method)121/.6Bostrom Nick1973-766005MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910821258403321Anthropic bias3959367UNINA