05335oam 22012854 450 991082034010332120200520144314.01-4623-1251-91-4527-8549-X1-282-04589-X1-4519-0557-29786613797674(CKB)3360000000442246(EBL)3014253(SSID)ssj0000948576(PQKBManifestationID)11576949(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000948576(PQKBWorkID)10947820(PQKB)11664389(MiAaPQ)EBC3014253(MiAaPQ)EBC3012492(IMF)WPIEE2005002(IMF)WPIEA2005002(EXLCZ)99336000000044224620020129d2005 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrThe Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries /Stephan Danninger, Annette Kyobe, M. CangianoWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2005.1 online resource (34 p.)IMF Working Papers"January 2005."1-4518-6021-8 Includes bibliographical references (p. 32-33).""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. VARIETIES OF COUNTRY INSURANCE""; ""A. Capital Controls""; ""B. Self-Insurance""; ""C. Private Insurance""; ""D. IMF-Led Packages""; ""E. Regional Swap Agreements""; ""III. A NEW COUNTRY INSURANCE FACILITY""; ""A. Eligibility Criteria""; ""B. Interest Rate""; ""C. Duration""; ""D. Size""; ""E. Procedures""; ""F. The Exit Problem""; ""IV. FINAL REMARKS""This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting interference through government corruption. The data broadly supports the model, and the results are robust to alternative explanations. The paper also constructs three indices-transparency, formality, and organizational simplicity-that characterize revenue-forecasting practices, and assesses their effectiveness in producing an upfront-that is, timely-budget envelope. More transparent and simple forecasting processes lead to early budget constraints, while formality has no measurable effect.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2005/002Financial crisesLiquidity (Economics)Lenders of last resortCapital movementsAdministrative Processes in Public OrganizationsimfBudget planning and preparationimfBudget SystemsimfBudgetimfBudgeting & financial managementimfBudgetingimfBureaucracyimfCorporate crimeimfCorruptionimfCrimeimfCriminologyimfExpenditureimfExpenditures, PublicimfNational BudgetimfNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: GeneralimfPublic finance & taxationimfPublic FinanceimfPublic financial management (PFM)imfRevenue administrationimfRevenue forecastingimfRevenueimfTax administration and procedureimfTax policyimfTaxationimfTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: GeneralimfWhite-collar crimeimfUnited StatesimfFinancial crises.Liquidity (Economics)Lenders of last resort.Capital movements.Administrative Processes in Public OrganizationsBudget planning and preparationBudget SystemsBudgetBudgeting & financial managementBudgetingBureaucracyCorporate crimeCorruptionCrimeCriminologyExpenditureExpenditures, PublicNational BudgetNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: GeneralPublic finance & taxationPublic FinancePublic financial management (PFM)Revenue administrationRevenue forecastingRevenueTax administration and procedureTax policyTaxationTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: GeneralWhite-collar crimeDanninger Stephan1674585Cangiano M1769951Kyobe Annette1674586International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910820340103321The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries4245290UNINA