03456nam 2200649 450 991081988060332120230125204643.01-60649-503-8(CKB)3710000000830857(BEP)4648346(OCoLC)957560168(CaBNVSL)swl00406795(Au-PeEL)EBL4648346(CaPaEBR)ebr11249437(CaONFJC)MIL949046(OCoLC)958559630(CaSebORM)9781606495032(MiAaPQ)EBC4648346(EXLCZ)99371000000083085720160829d2016 fy 0engurcnu||||||||rdacontentrdamediardacarrierDemand forecasting for managers /Stephan Kolassa, Enno SiemsenFirst edition.New York, New York (222 East 46th Street, New York, NY 10017) :Business Expert Press,2016.1 online resource (158 pages)Supply and operations management collection,2156-82001-60649-502-X Includes bibliographical references (pages 147-153) and index.Part 1. Introduction -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Choice under uncertainty -- 3. A simple example -- Part 2. Forecasting basics -- 4. Know your time series -- 5. Time series decomposition -- Part 3. Forecasting models -- 6. Exponential smoothing -- 7. ARIMA models -- 8. Causal models and leading indicators -- 9. Count data and intermittent demands -- 10. Human judgment -- Part 4. Forecasting quality -- 11. Forecast quality measures -- 12. Forecasting competitions -- Part 5. Forecasting organization -- 13. Sales and operations planning -- 14. Forecasting hierarchies -- References -- Index. Most decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that is why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. We therefore start out from the very basics and provide a nontechnical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. We also discuss how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the nonexpert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it.Supply and operations management collection.2156-8200Business forecastingforecastingsales and operations planningdecision makingservice levelsstatistics thinkingchoice under uncertaintyforecast accuracyintermittent demandforecasting competitionjudgmental forecastingBusiness forecasting.658.40355Kolassa Stephan.1718820Siemsen Enno.MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910819880603321Demand forecasting for managers4116083UNINA