04323oam 22009734 450 991081986500332120200520144314.01-4623-7502-21-4519-8330-11-282-55824-21-4519-8710-29786613822376(CKB)3360000000443272(EBL)3014393(SSID)ssj0000939933(PQKBManifestationID)11596387(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939933(PQKBWorkID)10939185(PQKB)10949693(OCoLC)698585655(MiAaPQ)EBC3014393(IMF)WPIEE2006175(IMF)WPIEA2006175(EXLCZ)99336000000044327220020129d2006 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrThe Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting /Francis Kumah1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2006.1 online resource (27 p.)IMF Working Papers"July 2006".1-4518-6435-3 Includes bibliographical references.""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC""; ""III. SEASONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES""; ""IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION""; ""V. CONCLUDING REMARKS""; ""References""; ""Appendix. Further Empirical Results""Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where seasonal fluctuations of economic activity and prices are pronounced. In an application of the framework, the paper characterizes and investigates the stability of the seasonal pattern of consumer prices in the Kyrgyz Republic and estimates optimal money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad specifications of an augmented error-correction model-with and without seasonal components. Findings from the paper confirm empirical superiority (in terms of information content and contributions to policymaking) of augmented error-correction models of inflation over single-equation, Box-Jenkins-type general autoregressive seasonal models. Simulations of the estimated errorcorrection models yield optimal monetary policy paths for achieving inflation targets and demonstrate the empirical significance of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2006/175Inflation (Finance)ForecastingMonetary policyConsumer price indexesimfConsumer pricesimfCurrencyimfDeflationimfEconomic ForecastingimfEconomic forecastingimfExchange ratesimfForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsimfForecastingimfForeign ExchangeimfForeign exchangeimfInflationimfMacroeconomicsimfPrice indexesimfPrice LevelimfPricesimfKyrgyz RepublicimfInflation (Finance)Forecasting.Monetary policy.Consumer price indexesConsumer pricesCurrencyDeflationEconomic ForecastingEconomic forecastingExchange ratesForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsForecastingForeign ExchangeForeign exchangeInflationMacroeconomicsPrice indexesPrice LevelPricesKumah Francis1771536DcWaIMFBOOK9910819865003321The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting4261950UNINA