11662nam 2200697Ia 450 991081927520332120240416235716.01-280-21199-797866102119990-309-54370-30-585-00943-0(CKB)110986584751020(OCoLC)43474522(CaPaEBR)ebrary10062750(SSID)ssj0000236570(PQKBManifestationID)11198340(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000236570(PQKBWorkID)10173284(PQKB)10941732(MiAaPQ)EBC3376914(Au-PeEL)EBL3376914(CaPaEBR)ebr10062750(CaONFJC)MIL21199(OCoLC)923266959(EXLCZ)9911098658475102019910124d1990 uy 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrResearch strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program /Committee on Global Change (U.S. National Committee for the IGBP) of the Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, National Research Council1st ed.Washington, D.C. National Academy Press19901 online resource (303 p.) Committee chairman: Harold Mooney.0-309-04348-4 Includes bibliographical references.Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Summary of Recommendations -- INTEGRATED MODELING OF THE EARTH SYSTEM -- FOCUSED STUDIES TO IMPROVE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF GLOBAL CHANGE -- Earth System History and Modeling -- Human Sources of Global Change -- Water-Energy-Vegetation Interactions -- Terrestrial Trace Gas and Nutrient Fluxes -- Biogeochemical Dynamics in the Ocean -- DOCUMENTING GLOBAL CHANGE -- REFERENCES -- 1 Introduction -- THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM -- INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS: IGBP AND WCRP -- OBJECTIVES AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT -- REFERENCES -- 2 Integrated Modeling of the Earth System -- OVERVIEW -- ATMOSPHERE-TERRESTRIAL SUBSYSTEM -- A Modeling Strategy: Prognosis for Progress -- Research Priorities -- Summary -- PHYSICAL-CHEMICAL INTERACTIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE -- A Modeling Strategy: Prognosis for Progress -- Research Priorities -- Summary -- ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN SUBSYSTEM -- Uncoupled Models -- Coupled Models -- A Modeling Strategy: Prognosis for Progress -- Bottom-Up: A Focus on Key Processes -- Key Processes: Small Scales -- Limiting Processes: Mesoscales -- Limiting Processes: Basin and Global Scales -- Top-Down: A Focus on Phenomena -- Research Priorities -- Summary -- CRITICAL MODEL TESTS -- The Challenge and Critical Tests -- The Interface Models -- Atmosphere-Terrestrial Subsystem -- Physical-Chemical Interactions in the Atmosphere -- Atmosphere-Ocean Subsystem -- INFRASTRUCTURE -- REFERENCES -- 3 Earth System History and Modeling -- OVERVIEW -- Contribution of Geologic Studies to Global Change -- Specific Research Initiatives -- Priorities -- Themes of the Proposed Research -- Implementation of the Research Plan -- HOLOCENE HIGH-RESOLUTION ENVIRONMENTAL RECONSTRUCTIONS -- The Last 1,000 to 2,000 Years -- Global Network of Environmental Change.Observational Needs. -- Modeling Needs -- Little Ice Age -- Observational Needs -- Modeling Needs -- Regional Process Studies -- Observational Needs -- Modeling Needs -- Earlier Holocene Millennial-Scale Fluctuations -- Observational Needs -- Modeling Needs -- GLACIAL-INTERGLACIAL CYCLES -- The Last 40,000 Years -- Abrupt Changes -- Observational Needs -- Modeling Needs -- Resolving Model-Data Discrepancies over the Last 20,000 Years -- Observational Needs -- Modeling Needs -- The Last Glacial Cycle (Last 130,000 Years) -- Global Carbon Cycle -- Observational Needs -- Modeling Needs -- The Previous Interglacial -- Observational Needs -- Modeling Needs -- Regional Variations in Climate over a Glacial Cycle -- Observational Needs -- The Last Few Glacial-Interglacial Cycles (Last 500,000 Years) -- Observational Needs -- Modeling Needs -- SYSTEM RESPONSES TO LARGE CHANGES IN FORCING -- Environments of Extreme Warm Periods -- Observational Needs -- Modeling Needs -- Climate-Biosphere Connections During Abrupt Changes -- Observational Needs -- Modeling Needs -- CRITICAL PROGRAM ELEMENTS -- Sample Acquisition -- Environmental Calibration -- Correlation of Records -- Data Management -- INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION -- REFERENCES -- 4 Human Sources of Global Change -- OVERVIEW -- Background -- Priority Recommendations -- THE RESEARCH PROGRAM -- INDUSTRIAL METABOLISM -- Integration and Synthesis -- Process Studies and New Data -- The Intensity of Energy and Materials Use -- The Dynamics of Industrial and Technological Change -- Regional Evolution of Industrial Metabolism -- LAND TRANSFORMATIONS -- Integration and Synthesis -- Global Agriculture Model -- Land Cover Projections for the Twenty-first Century -- Process Studies -- Fertilization -- Biomass Burning -- Livestock Development -- Data Needs.Land Use, Land Cover, or Land Capability/Population Density Geographic Information System -- Land Tenure and Size of Holdings -- Regional Case Studies and Research Centers -- INTEGRATIVE STUDIES ACROSS LAND USE AND INDUSTRY -- Global Model of Greenhouse Gas Emissions -- Earth Systems Information Flow Diagram for Human Interactions -- Driving Forces: Population, Economy, Technology, and Institutions -- IMPLEMENTATION REQUIREMENTS -- Related Institutional Efforts on Human Interactions with Global Change -- Investigator-Initiated Research -- Education and Training -- Data Preparation and Dissemination -- THE STEPS BEYOND -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- 5 Water-Energy-Vegetation Interactions -- OVERVIEW -- DATA NEEDS AND EXPERIMENTS -- Global Data Needs -- Long-Term Monitoring -- Integrated Monitoring and Process Studies -- Experiments -- Integrated Ecosystem Experiments -- Field Campaigns -- Simulated and Actual Impact Studies -- Fundamental Research and Laboratory Work -- Remote Sensing -- Ecological Process Studies -- Hydrology -- Instrument Development -- MODELING -- Intermodel Transfer Packages -- Phenological Descriptions for LSPs -- Hydrological Models -- Surface/Planetary Boundary Layer Models -- Ecosystem Structure Models -- Radiative Transfer/Plant Physiology Models -- Soil Genesis Models -- Sensitivity Analyses -- Summary -- INFRASTRUCTURE -- Operational Observations -- Satellite Data Processing -- Centers for Research and Monitoring -- Education -- Interagency and International Coordination -- REFERENCES -- 6 Terrestrial Trace Gas and Nutrient Fluxes -- OVERVIEW -- Problem Definition -- General Approach -- RESEARCH NEEDS -- Trace Gases -- Carbon Dioxide -- Research Priorities -- Methane -- Research Priorities -- Volatile Organic Compounds -- Research Priorities -- Sulfur -- Research Priorities -- Tropospheric Ozone -- Research Priorities.Carbon Monoxide -- Research Priorities -- Nitrous Oxide and Reactive Nitrogen Compounds -- Research Priorities -- Nutrient and Material Fluxes -- Fluxes Across Terrestrial Systems -- Research Priorities -- Fluxes from Terrestrial to Coastal Marine Systems -- Research Priorities -- METHODS AND INSTRUMENTS -- Models -- Instrumentation for Measuring Fluxes -- CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES -- REFERENCES -- 7 Biogeochemical Dynamics in the Ocean -- OVERVIEW -- STATUS OF EXISTING EFFORTS -- Biogeochemical Fluxes -- Ocean-Atmosphere Interface -- Oceanic Ecosystem Response to Climatic Change -- Physical Processes -- Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions -- Global Ocean Circulation -- Precipitation over the Oceans -- Polar Processes -- STATUS OF MODELING AND MONITORING EFFORTS -- The Need for Modeling -- The Need for Monitoring -- RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ENHANCED SUPPORT, NEW INITIATIVES, AND RESEARCH PROGRAMS -- REFERENCES -- 8 Documenting Global Change -- OVERVIEW -- MEASUREMENT STRATEGY -- Monitoring Requirements -- Global Synthesis -- Process Studies -- Earth System History and Modeling -- Human Sources of Global Change -- Water-Energy-Vegetation Interactions -- Terrestrial Trace Gas and Nutrient Fluxes -- Biogeochemical Dynamics in the Ocean -- Existing and Planned Observing Systems -- Space Observing System -- Large-Scale Field and Process Studies -- Surface Observation Networks -- International Coordination -- INFORMATION AND DATA MANAGEMENT -- Data System Requirements -- Kinds of Data Needed -- Functions of a Data and Information System -- Creating a New System -- Scientific Involvement -- Data Directories -- Data Submission -- Quality Assurance and Documentation -- Cooperation and Sharing -- REFERENCES -- Appendixes -- Appendix A List of Participants in the Workshop on Human Interactions with Global Change.Appendix B A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change -- 1 Integrative Modeling -- 1.1 Impacts of World Development on Selected Characteristics of the Atmosphere: An Integrative Approach (Darmstadter et al.,… -- Data -- Process -- Synthesis -- 1.2 Long-Term Global Energy and CO2 Model (Edmonds and Reilly, 1983) -- Data -- Process -- Synthesis -- 1.3 Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Lashof and Tirpak, 1989)… -- Data -- Process -- Synthesis -- 1.4 Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative Development Paths (Stigliani et al., 1989a,b)… -- Data -- Process -- Synthesis -- 1.5 Project Proposal: Strategies for Environmentally Sound Development: An Input-Output Analysis (Duchin, 1989c)… -- 2 Industrial Metabolism: Transformation of Materials and Energy -- 2.1 Materials Balance Studies -- 2.1.1 The Hudson-Raritan Study (Ayres et al., 1988 -- Ayres and Rod, 1986) -- Data -- Process -- Synthesis -- 2.1.2 Other Studies -- 2.2 Trends in Material Intensity and Energy Intensity -- 2.2.1 Materials, Affluence, and Industrial Energy Use (Williams et al., 1987) -- Data -- Process -- 2.2.2 "Dematerialization" (Herman et al., 1989) -- Data -- Process -- 2.2.3 "Energy Use, Technological Change, and Productive Efficiency: An Economic-Historical Interpret ... -- Data -- Process -- 2.2.4 Energy for a Sustainable World (Goldemberg et al., 1987, 1988) -- Data -- Process -- Synthesis -- 2.2.5 Toward a New Iron Age (Gordon et al., 1987) -- Data -- Process -- Estimates of demand -- Synthesis -- 2.3 Studies of Long Waves (Marchetti, 1983, 1988 -- Marchetti and Nakicenovic, 1979 -- Nakicenovic, 1988) -- Data -- Process -- Synthesis -- 2.4 Global Energy Modeling -- 2.4.1 The TEA/ORAU Model (Edmonds and Reilly, 1983) -- Data -- Process -- Synthesis.2.4.2 Paths of Energy and Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Nordhaus and Yohe, 1983).Climatic changesResearchGovernment policyUnited StatesGeodynamicsResearchGovernment policyUnited StatesGlobal warmingResearchGovernment policyUnited StatesEarthResearchGovernment policyUnited StatesClimatic changesResearchGovernment policyGeodynamicsResearchGovernment policyGlobal warmingResearchGovernment policy363.73/87Mooney Harold A76936National Research Council (U.S.).Committee on Global Change.MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910819275203321Research strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program4077342UNINA