05686oam 22011774 450 991081715830332120240402044948.01-4623-5777-61-4527-2079-71-282-84526-81-4519-6217-79786612845260(CKB)3170000000055418(SSID)ssj0001477882(PQKBManifestationID)11892584(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477882(PQKBWorkID)11461921(PQKB)10062116(OCoLC)680613531(MiAaPQ)EBC1606058(IMF)WPIEE2010017(EXLCZ)99317000000005541820020129d2010 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrInflation in Tajikistan : Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges /Svetlana Vtyurina, Fahad Alturki1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2010.19 p. illIMF Working PapersBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph1-4519-1866-6 Includes bibliographical references.Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in Tajikistan -- III. Empirical Investigation -- IV. Summary and Considerations -- References -- Tables -- 1. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests -- 2. Johansen Co-Integration Tests -- 3. Model Restriction and Weak Exogeneity Tests -- 4. Main Statistics of Various ARMA Models, 1999-2009 -- Exhibits and Figures -- Exhibit -- 1. Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Tajikistan -- Figures -- 1. NBT Refinancing Rate and Bank Lending Rates, 2001-08 -- 2. Money Growth and Inflation, 2001-08 -- 3. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation 2001Q1-2010Q4 -- 4. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation 2001Q4-2010Q4 -- 5. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation, 1999-2009 -- 6. Tajikistan: Inflation Forecast Based on BARMA (2,2) Model, Dec. 2007-June 2009 -- 7. Tajikistan: Inflation Forecast Based on ARMA (2,2) Model, Dec. 2008-Dec. 2010.This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2010/017Inflation (Finance)TajikistanMonetary policyTajikistanEconometricsimfForeign ExchangeimfInflationimfMoney and Monetary PolicyimfForecastingimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralimfForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsimfMultiple or Simultaneous Equation ModelsimfMultiple Variables: GeneralimfMacroeconomicsimfMonetary economicsimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfEconomic ForecastingimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfMonetary baseimfExchange ratesimfEconomic forecastingimfVector error correction modelsimfPricesimfMoney supplyimfEconometric modelsimfTajikistan, Republic ofimfInflation (Finance)Monetary policyEconometricsForeign ExchangeInflationMoney and Monetary PolicyForecastingPrice LevelDeflationMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsMultiple or Simultaneous Equation ModelsMultiple Variables: GeneralMacroeconomicsMonetary economicsCurrencyForeign exchangeEconomic ForecastingEconometrics & economic statisticsMonetary baseExchange ratesEconomic forecastingVector error correction modelsPricesMoney supplyEconometric models332.1Vtyurina Svetlana1679780Alturki Fahad1679781International Monetary Fund.DcWaIMFBOOK9910817158303321Inflation in Tajikistan4048281UNINA