04730oam 22012254 450 991081489690332120240410163009.01-4623-2601-31-4552-3361-71-283-53848-297866138509351-4552-1056-0(CKB)3360000000444337(SSID)ssj0001477359(PQKBManifestationID)11928320(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477359(PQKBWorkID)11453816(PQKB)11254053(MiAaPQ)EBC3014578(Au-PeEL)EBL3014578(CaPaEBR)ebr10386129(OCoLC)805516560(IMF)IRBEE2010001(IMF)IRBEA2010001(EXLCZ)99336000000044433720020129d2010 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrIMF Research Bulletin, March 20101st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2010.12 p. ill., portsIMF Research BulletinBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph1-4552-9162-5 Includes bibliographical references.In This Issue -- Forecasting Recessions: Consensus and Disagreement -- Searching for Robust Growth Determinants -- Visiting Scholars, January-March 2010 -- Seven Questions about House Price Cycles -- IMF Working Papers -- IMF Staff Papers -- Staff Position Notes.This paper provides a brief overview of the latest research on the ability of forecasters to predict recessions. The paper highlights that few recessions have been forecast before their onset. Forecasters tend to be excessively cautious and do not revise their forecasts promptly and sufficiently to reflect incoming news. Nor do they fully take into account interdependence among economies. This paper also focuses on robust growth determinants highlighting that a fundamental problem confronting researchers is the lack of an explicit theory identifying the determinants of growth.IMF Research Bulletin; IMF Research Bulletin ;No. 2010/001International financeEconomic developmentResearchFinancial Risk ManagementimfInflationimfInfrastructureimfMacroeconomicsimfReal EstateimfHousing Supply and MarketsimfEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation AnalysisimfHousingimfFinancial CrisesimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfForeign ExchangeimfInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsimfProperty & real estateimfEconomic & financial crises & disastersimfInternational economicsimfFinanceimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfHousing pricesimfFinancial crisesimfGlobal financial crisis of 2008-2009imfPricesimfNational accountsimfSaving and investmentimfDebts, ExternalimfGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009imfUnited StatesimfInternational finance.Economic developmentResearch.Financial Risk ManagementInflationInfrastructureMacroeconomicsReal EstateHousing Supply and MarketsEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation AnalysisHousingFinancial CrisesPrice LevelDeflationForeign ExchangeInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsProperty & real estateEconomic & financial crises & disastersInternational economicsFinanceEconometrics & economic statisticsHousing pricesFinancial crisesGlobal financial crisis of 2008-2009PricesNational accountsSaving and investmentDebts, ExternalGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009International Monetary Fund.DcWaIMFBOOK9910814896903321IMF Research Bulletin, March 20103914915UNINA