03765nam 2200589Ia 450 991081423220332120200520144314.00-674-03929-710.4159/9780674039292(CKB)1000000000805536(StDuBDS)AH21620436(Au-PeEL)EBL3300671(CaPaEBR)ebr10328849(OCoLC)923116926(DE-B1597)574630(DE-B1597)9780674039292(OCoLC)1262307698(MiAaPQ)EBC3300671(EXLCZ)99100000000080553620040308d2004 uy 0engur|||||||||||txtrdacontentcrdamediacrrdacarrierSurprise attack the victim's perspective /Ephraim KamCambridge, Mass. ;London Harvard University Press20041 online resource (xv,266p. )illIncludes bibliographical references and index.0-674-85745-3 0-674-01354-9 Frontmatter --Acknowledgments --Contents --Foreword --Preface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons --Introduction --Part I. The Components of Surprise Attack --1. The Essence of Surprise Attack --2. Information and Indicators --3. Intentions and Capabilities --Part II. Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis --4. Conceptions and Incoming Information --5. The Process of Analysis --Part III. The Environment --6. The Analyst and the Small Group --7. Organizational Obstacles --8. Intelligence and Decision Makers --Conclusion: Is Surprise Attack Inevitable? --Notes --Bibliography --IndexEphraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints. Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.--Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of IsraelSurprise (Military science)Military art and scienceInternational relationsPreemptive attack (Military science)Military history, Modern20th centurySurprise (Military science)Military art and science.International relations.Preemptive attack (Military science)Military history, Modern355.43Kam Ephraim1941-1699715MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910814232203321Surprise attack4082189UNINA