06186oam 22013214 450 991081270600332120240402045608.01-4755-2485-41-4755-3732-8(CKB)2670000000278830(EBL)1606987(SSID)ssj0000949360(PQKBManifestationID)11541305(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000949360(PQKBWorkID)10996277(PQKB)11355306(MiAaPQ)EBC1606987(Au-PeEL)EBL1606987(CaPaEBR)ebr10627051(OCoLC)870245050(IMF)WPIEE2012227(IMF)WPIEA2012227(EXLCZ)99267000000027883020020129d2012 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrDeterminants of Growth Spells : Is Africa Different? /Charalambos Tsangarides1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (33 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.1-4755-6618-2 1-4755-1022-5 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Identifying Growth Spells and Their Determinants; A. From Structural Breaks to Growth Spells; B. Determinants of Growth Spells; III. Empirical Strategy; A. Survival Models; B. BMA for survival models; C. Model Specification and Africa Interactions; IV. Results; A. Impact of Model Uncertainty; B. Robustness Analysis Using BMA; V. Conclusion; References; Tables; 1. Growth Breaks by Country Group; 2. Stylized Facts about Growth Spells; 3. Evidence for Lack of Robustness from Ad Hoc Growth Regressions4. Posterior Coefficient Estimates for Growth Spells for Africa, Non-Africa, and World Figures; 1a. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus; 1b. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus in Africa; 2a. Distribution of Upbreaks; 2b. Distribution of Downbreaks; 3. Duration of Growth Spells and Explanatory Variables; AppendixDo growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine determinants of growth spells in Africa and the rest of the world using Bayesian Mode Averaging techniques for proportional hazards models. We define growth spells as periods of sustained growth episodes between growth accelerations and decelerations and then relate the probability that a growth spell ends to various determinants including exogenous shocks, physical and human capital, macroeconomic policy, and sociopolitical factors. Our analysis suggests that determinants of growth spells in Africa are different from those in the rest of the world. The majority of the identified robust determinants have a distinct impact in only one of the two samples: initial income, terms of trade, exchange rate undervaluation and inflation, influence spells only in the world sample, while openness and droughts seem to only affect Africa. In addition, a few common determinants - proxies for human and physical capital and changes in the world interest rate - have very different marginal effects in the two samples.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/227Economic developmentAfricaExports and ImportsimfForeign ExchangeimfLaborimfMacroeconomicsimfMacroeconomic Analyses of Economic DevelopmentimfEconomic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: GeneralimfBayesian Analysis: GeneralimfPersonal Income, Wealth, and Their DistributionsimfEmpirical Studies of TradeimfHuman CapitalimfSkillsimfOccupational ChoiceimfLabor ProductivityimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfInternational economicsimfLabourimfincome economicsimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfPersonal incomeimfTerms of tradeimfHuman capitalimfExchange ratesimfOil pricesimfNational accountsimfInternational tradeimfIncomeimfEconomic policyimfnternational cooperationimfAfricaEconomic conditionsUnited StatesimfEconomic developmentExports and ImportsForeign ExchangeLaborMacroeconomicsMacroeconomic Analyses of Economic DevelopmentEconomic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: GeneralBayesian Analysis: GeneralPersonal Income, Wealth, and Their DistributionsEmpirical Studies of TradeHuman CapitalSkillsOccupational ChoiceLabor ProductivityEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesInternational economicsLabourincome economicsCurrencyForeign exchangePersonal incomeTerms of tradeHuman capitalExchange ratesOil pricesNational accountsInternational tradeIncomeEconomic policynternational cooperation332.1/52Tsangarides Charalambos1462110DcWaIMFBOOK9910812706003321Determinants of Growth Spells4048453UNINA