04475oam 22011054 450 991081262550332120240402050243.01-4623-8405-61-4527-4202-21-282-84091-61-4518-6998-39786612840913(CKB)3170000000055040(EBL)1607892(SSID)ssj0000944174(PQKBManifestationID)11485781(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000944174(PQKBWorkID)10982599(PQKB)10036915(OCoLC)252901342(MiAaPQ)EBC1607892(IMF)WPIEE2008140(EXLCZ)99317000000005504020020129d2008 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrMuch Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth /Shekhar Aiyar, Ivan Tchakarov1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2008.1 online resource (20 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/08/140Description based upon print version of record.1-4519-1451-2 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; III. Results; IV. Confidence Intervals; V. Conclusion; Figures; 1. Data Used for Estimation; 2. Responses to a 1 Percent Slowdown in U.S. Growth; 3. Robustness--Confidence Intervals of GDP Growth Responses; Table; 1. Model Parameter Estimation Results; ReferencesExternal demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to the US has fallen in recent years, the US remains Thailand's largest export destination. We use a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the possible impact of a U.S. slowdown on Thai growth. We find that a 1 percent slowdown in U.S. growth in 2008-relative to the baseline forecast-could have an upper-bound impact on Thai GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2008/140ExportsThailandEconometric modelsEconomic developmentThailandEconometric modelsBanks and BankingimfForeign ExchangeimfInflationimfProduction and Operations ManagementimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfMacroeconomicsimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfFinanceimfOutput gapimfExchange ratesimfReal exchange ratesimfReal interest ratesimfProductionimfEconomic theoryimfPricesimfInterest ratesimfThailandForeign economic relationsUnited StatesEconometric modelsUnited StatesimfExportsEconometric models.Economic developmentEconometric models.Banks and BankingForeign ExchangeInflationProduction and Operations ManagementMacroeconomics: ProductionPrice LevelDeflationInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsMacroeconomicsCurrencyForeign exchangeFinanceOutput gapExchange ratesReal exchange ratesReal interest ratesProductionEconomic theoryPricesInterest rates382.6Aiyar Shekhar1095044Tchakarov Ivan1722282DcWaIMFBOOK9910812625503321Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth4122518UNINA