03429nam 2200625Ia 450 991081202290332120200520144314.01-4623-1440-697866128428631-282-84286-21-4518-7212-71-4519-9534-2(CKB)3170000000055230(SSID)ssj0000940118(PQKBManifestationID)11576141(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940118(PQKBWorkID)10946290(PQKB)11211696(OCoLC)550683377(IMF)WPIEE2009065(MiAaPQ)EBC1605895(EXLCZ)99317000000005523020100902d2009 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrDeveloping a structured forecasting and policy analysis system to support inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) /Douglas Laxton, David Rose, and Alasdair Scott1st ed.[Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund200965 p. illIMF working paper ;WP/09/65Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph1-4519-1647-7 Includes bibliographical references.Intro -- CONTENTS -- I. Introduction -- II. Developing a Decision-Making Process -- III. Benefits of a Successful IFT Regime -- IV. Critical Path For Developing A Structured FPAS -- V. The Quarterly Projection Exercise -- VI. The Core Model -- VII. The Role of Models in the FPAS -- VIII. On the Evolution and Development of the FPAS -- Text Figures -- 1. The Role of Models in the Forecast Process -- 2. From Policy Issues to Policy Recommendations -- 3. How Several Models can be Combined to Impose Consistency -- Appendix Figures -- 4. A Possible Reporting Structure -- 5. Links Between Different Databases -- 6. The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism -- 7. Inflation Expectations 10-Years-Ahead in the United Kingdom -- Appendix Tables -- 1. Estimation of a Model with Model-Consistent Measures of Potential GDP -- 2. Notation: Time Periods Correspond to Calendar Quarters.This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model.IMF working paper ;WP/09/65.Economic forecastingInflation targetingEconomic forecasting.Inflation targeting.338.102368Laxton Douglas1594457Rose David1643723Scott Alasdair1643722International Monetary Fund.MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910812022903321Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)3989165UNINA