04019nam 22006251a 450 991081201930332120200520144314.01-4623-5173-51-4527-1071-61-4518-7306-997866128437231-282-84372-9(CKB)3170000000055310(EBL)1608375(SSID)ssj0000942100(PQKBManifestationID)11510041(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942100(PQKBWorkID)10964508(PQKB)10843389(OCoLC)645191528(IMF)WPIEE2009159(MiAaPQ)EBC1608375(EXLCZ)99317000000005531020100304d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrMacroeconomic fluctuations in the Caribbean the role of climatic and external shocks /prepared by Sebastian Sosa and Paul Cashin1st ed.[Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Dept.20091 online resource (29 p.)IMF working paper ;WP/09/159"July 2009."1-4519-1734-1 Contents; I. Introduction; II. Econometric Approach; A. Specification and Identification Strategy; B. Block Structure, Variables, and Data; Tables; 1. Block Exogeneity Restrictions of the VAR Model; C. Estimation; III. Business Cycle Responses to External Shocks: Empirical Results; 2. Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in the Eastern Caribbean; 3. Climatic Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; Figures; 1. Natural Disasters and GDP Growth in the Eastern Caribbean; 2. Response of Real Output to Climatic Shocks; 3. Response of Real Output to Climatic Shocks4. Oil Price Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU4. Response of Real Output to Oil Price Shocks; 5. Real GDP Growth in the Eastern Caribbean and Industrial Countries; 5. External Demand Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; 6. Response of Real Output to External Demand Shocks; 6. World Real Interest Rate Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; IV. Concluding Remarks; 7. Response of Real Output to World Real Interest Rate Shocks; Appendix Tables; A1. Antigua and Barbuda: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A2. Dominica: Variance Decomposition of Real OutputA3. Grenada: Variance Decomposition of Real OutputA4. St. Kitts and Nevis: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A5. St. Lucia: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A6. St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; ReferencesThis paper develops country-specific VAR models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business cycles are especially vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, with a natural disaster leading to an immediate and significant fall in output-but the effects do not appear to be persistent. Oil price and external demand shocks also contribute significantly to domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. An increase in oil prices (external demand) is contractionary (expansionary), and the effects dissipate up to three years after the shock.IMF working paper ;WP/09/159.Natural disastersEconomic aspectsCaribbean AreaEconomic conditionsNatural disastersEconomic aspects.330.9Sosa Sebastian1643706Cashin Paul1632384International Monetary Fund.Western Hemisphere Dept.MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910812019303321Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean3989131UNINA