04929oam 22011294 450 991080887870332120240410162647.01-4623-4475-51-4527-8041-21-283-51807-41-4519-8695-59786613830524(CKB)3360000000443976(EBL)3014448(SSID)ssj0000943004(PQKBManifestationID)11528414(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943004(PQKBWorkID)10974674(PQKB)11451855(OCoLC)694141107(IMF)WPIEE2006172(MiAaPQ)EBC3014448(EXLCZ)99336000000044397620020129d2006 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrOutput Drops and the Shocks That Matter /Paolo Mauro, Torbjorn Becker1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2006.1 online resource (43 p.)IMF Working Papers"July 2006".1-4518-6432-9 Includes bibliographical references.""Contents""; ""I. MOTIVATION AND RELATED STUDIES""; ""II. OUTPUT DROPS""; ""III. SHOCKS""; ""IV. MULTIVARIATE PROBIT ANALYSIS""; ""V. ROBUSTNESS AND EXTENSIONS""; ""VI. CONCLUSIONS""; ""APPENDIX TABLES AND FIGURES""; ""APPENDIX I. HODRICK-PRESCOTT-FILTER BASED DEFINITION OF EVENTS""; ""APPENDIX II. KERNEL DENSITY PLOTS: OUTPUT DROPS AND 1970 PER CAPITA GDP""; ""APPENDIX III. DATA SOURCES AND DEFINITIONS""; ""REFERENCES""Output drops are usually associated with major disruption for the residents of affected countries, both directly and often through ensuing, prolonged growth slowdowns. Using a century of data, we document that output drops are more frequent in countries at a lower stage of economic development. We then turn to a more in-depth analysis of the post-1970 era, examining output drops in a large panel of countries, and systematically relating them to a variety of shocks. We compute the expected cost of each type of shock as a function of the shock's frequency, the likelihood that the shock will be associated with a drop in output, and the size of the output drop. The largest costs are associated with external financial shocks (notably, sudden stops in financial flows) for emerging markets, and with real external shocks (in particular, terms-of-trade shocks) for developing countries.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2006/172Economic developmentInput-output analysisExports and ImportsimfFinance: GeneralimfFinancial Risk ManagementimfMacroeconomicsimfGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfInternational InvestmentimfLong-term Capital MovementsimfFinancial CrisesimfEmpirical Studies of TradeimfForeign ExchangeimfInternational economicsimfEconomic & financial crises & disastersimfFinanceimfEmerging and frontier financial marketsimfSudden stopsimfFinancial crisesimfTerms of tradeimfCurrency crisesimfFinancial services industryimfCapital movementsimfEconomic policyimfnternational cooperationimfUnited StatesimfEconomic development.Input-output analysis.Exports and ImportsFinance: GeneralFinancial Risk ManagementMacroeconomicsGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)International InvestmentLong-term Capital MovementsFinancial CrisesEmpirical Studies of TradeForeign ExchangeInternational economicsEconomic & financial crises & disastersFinanceEmerging and frontier financial marketsSudden stopsFinancial crisesTerms of tradeCurrency crisesFinancial services industryCapital movementsEconomic policynternational cooperationMauro Paolo1630692Becker Torbjorn1642179International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910808878703321Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter3986750UNINA